541
FXUS65 KFGZ 230428
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
928 PM MST Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An early development to the 2024 Monsoon season will
bring chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
well into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...On Sunday, expect another active Monsoon day across
northern Arizona as flow around an elongated area of high
pressure centered over New Mexico continues to pump moisture into
the region. Low CAPE values between 100-600 J/kg and minimal
shear means the threat of severe weather is low. However,
precipitable water between 1.0 to 1.5 inches and storm motion of
only 5 knots means the potential for flash flooding due to heavy
rainfall from slow moving storms is high. The bulk of the high
resolution model guidance suggests the greatest storm activity
will occur across the Coconino and Yavapai Counties.

Through much of next week, deep monsoon moisture is forecast to
remain in place resulting in daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Longer range models suggest storm activity may
decline from Friday into next weekend as moisture is scored out due
to the influence of a passing long-wave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/00Z through Monday 24/00Z...Outside of
shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Through
03Z, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and
erratic/gusty winds. More storms are expected after 18Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/00Z through Wednesday 26/00Z...Outside of
shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Then from 19Z-
03Z each day, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and
erratic/gusty winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...A low to medium grade Monsoon
pattern each day, with average temperatures and light winds outside
of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is likely with
almost any convective development.

Tuesday through Thursday...A low to medium grade Monsoon pattern
each day, with average temperatures and light southwesterly winds
outside of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is
likely with almost any convective development.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/Peterson
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff