Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
369 FXUS63 KFSD 160811 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for a higher end severe weather risk Sunday night into Monday across the CWA. Very large hail (>2") will be the primary risk, but some wind risk could develop. - An increased risk for heavy rain and potentially flash flooding will also be present late Sunday night into Monday. Though some uncertainty exists on where this rain axis may develop. - More humid conditions may not be as extensive on Sunday, and lingering clouds will may keep the warmest conditions near the Missouri River and Highway 20 corridor Monday. - Very unsettled pattern through most of next week. Ensemble guidance through the week suggests nearly a 50% probability for as much as 4" of rain by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 THIS MORNING: Convection continue to move away from the CWA this morning, leaving southerly winds and warm overnight temperatures in it`s wake. A secondary mid-lvl shortwave is moving through the James River valley early this morning, though any convection with it has since dissipated. Further west, we`re beginning to see a cool front surge eastward, likely reaching the western CWA by daybreak. TODAY: The aforementioned front will continue to surge southeast through the daytime hours today, likely falling along a line from Grand Island to Storm Lake and Albert Lea by late this afternoon. Guidance has trended cooler with temperatures this afternoon, with highs likely to stay in the lower to middle 80s in most areas, with only a slight chance for reaching 90 closer to the front. Surface moisture will also push further south, making 100 degree apparent temperatures less likely in northwest Iowa. Latest guidance continues to support a fairly significant CAP along the front later this afternoon, making surface based convection a bit less to form late this afternoon. If for some reason a storm could get going along the front, given the reservoir of MLCAPE, large hail and some 60 mph winds would be likely. One sign of incoming moisture we may see later this afternoon will be a few very high based showers moving through central and northeastern SD, indicative of the increasing isentropic lift and moisture return within the 315- 320K isentropic sfcs. It`s possible the southern zone of this lift, may mark the northern zone of where overnight rain could fall. TONIGHT: Multiple hazards are anticipated through the overnight hours, with the biggest question being how soon will risks develop and where the greatest risks will be focused. By 00Z moisture is expected to surge north on the wings on a 40 to 50 knot 850 mb LLJ, with sharpening mid-lvl lapse rates allowing upwards of 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE to reach the I-90 corridor by 03s. While a few elevated hailers could be possible south of I-90 by mid-evening, large scale deep ascent begins to arrive after 10pm as a shortwave enters the Plains from the southwest. Increasing mid-upper diffluence should lead to rapid upscale growth in convection as the midnight hour arrives. Uncertainty still remains on where this corridor of lift will develop. The HRRR/RAP remain far northern outliers north of Highway 14, while the GFS and many of it`s ensemble members focus along or south of I-90. The EC/CMC and several high resolution CAMs suggest the prime corridor would be somewhere either side of a Chamberlain to Madison to Marshall line. With lift focused along the 850 mb layer, effective shear may push 50 knots at times, and would support elevated supercells moving from southwest to northeast along the elevated front. Hail is likely to be the predominate threat with analog soundings suggesting potential for 2-3" diameter hail if the significant mid-lvl lapse rates can develop. The other main concern will be heavy rain. As we`ve mentioned before, many of the ingredients for high rainfall rates are expected tonight. PWATs approaching 200% of normal, deep warm cloud depths, semi-parallel flow along the elevated boundary (likely leading to training cells), and persistent mass convergence within the effective lifting layer. NBM QPF remains somewhat spread out given variability in ensemble data tonight, but feel there will be a corridor of 2-4" rainfall within the CWA wherever the convergence axis develops. Have tried to blend in a bit of HREF PMM guidance within the current NBM QPF from 06-12Z. A flood/flash flood watch could be needed, but given uncertainty in location, will leave to next forecast shift to watch for some signs of where this development could take place. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: Convection will not just shut off by 12Z Monday, as the deep southwesterly flow continues through the morning. It may not be until the mid-lvl shortwave drive east late in the morning for the rain to gradually end. Eventually, falling heights over the western High Plains will try to force the surface front northward, with a secondary cold front developing over central SD. An extremely unstable environment develops within the warm sector by Monday afternoon, however most of it may be capped. One focus for afternoon redevelopment may be along the front west of the James River, but lower risks for isolated elevated convection could be possible further east in the evening. With the surface warm front/stationary front focusing the best mass convergence north of the CWA, the focus for heavy rain may also shift just northeast of the area as well. It`s possible most of Monday night could stay dry. TUESDAY: Uncertainty does begin to grow by Tuesday, though most models push a cold front southeast early in the day. Convection may develop along this front early Tuesday afternoon, likely along and east of a line from Brookings to Yankton. Given the residual instability in the area, severe weather risks will again be possible, though lower effective shear may support more multi- cellular bowing segments into the early evening. Temperature Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front may push the upper 80s, with heat index values rising into the 90s. WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A busy week in the mid-upr Missouri River valley is expected into next weekend as the synoptic pattern remains primed for repeated convection risks. With the surface front and low-lvl baroclinic zone nearby, any perturbation moving through the quasi-zonal to southwest flow should initiate convection. With PWAT values holding near 150-175% of normal, heavy rain will be a risk in any convection. Ensemble probabilities (even given individual member variance) remain nearly 50% over a large area for 4"+ of rainfall. It`s highly likely that localized areas could see more. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mainly VFR conditions with southerly winds will prevail overnight. Showers and isolated storms continue to exit eastward out of northwest IA. Further west, showers and isolated storms continue to spread east from central SD into eastern SD overnight. Severe weather is unlikely with this activity, but there may be occasional MVFR stratus sliding in underneath the cirrus near and east of the I-29 corridor overnight. VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the day and early evening Sunday. A passing cold front will turn winds southwesterly and eventually northwesterly at KHON and KFSD on Sunday, becoming stationary between KFSD and KSUX by the end of the day. Another round of showers and strong to severe storms is expected to spread into the region late Sunday night. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...BP