668
FXUS63 KFSD 251928
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
228 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected through the period. Both the GFS
  and EC Ensemble have a 10 percent chance or lower for a tenth
  of an inch of rain in any given 24 hour period through 10
  days. Above average high temperatures in the 80s are expected
  through the weekend.

- Breezy southerly winds and lowering relative humidity levels
  may result in elevated fire danger for locations west of the
  James River on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Strong northerly flow aloft will drift east tonight with upper level
ridging building into the area into Thursday. This should lead to
milder lows as a light southerly wind develops overnight.

Southerly flow at the surface will increase through the day on
Thursday, becoming breezy west of I-29. The combination of stronger
winds, warm temperatures in the 80s and lower humidity will lead to
elevated fire danger in central SD. With fuels still hanging on to
some summertime greenness, they are in the process of curing. So
while fuels are still green enough to not support widespread fire
weather concerns, the next week or two and the lack of precipitation
should allow for fairly rapid curing, which may bring about more
fire weather concerns the 2nd and 3rd weeks of October if rain
remains absent.

Thursday night into Saturday upper level ridging remains in place as
low pressure combines with the incoming hurricane to develop a
blocking pattern to the southeast. This will continue dry weather
with above normal temperatures through this period with lows in the
50s and highs in the 80s.

On Monday troughiness deepens across Canada and the Northern Rockies
as a cold front is expected to swing through the area. This should
lead to a fairly windy day with relatively strong cold air advection
moving in through midday. Temperatures may also be colder with highs
possibly only in the 60s depending upon timing of the front, and
along with these stronger winds, it will feel a little chilly after
several days in the 80s. Some chance that temperatures top out in
the 70s then fall in the afternoon but still far enough out that
this is still up in the air.

Strong northwest flow aloft will keep cooler conditions locked in on
Tuesday with a better chance for highs in the 60s then a likely
rebound back to around normal or a bit above on Wednesday. Still
little to no precipitation expected.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR through the period. South winds will increase on Thursday
morning with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph near and west of the
James River before noon Thursday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08