Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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053 FXUS64 KFWD 131754 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today Through Friday/ A dominant upper level ridge will keep the weather quiet as we close out the work week. As a result, it will be quite warm across the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s both today and tomorrow. Dew points won`t mix out too much during the afternoon hours, so heat index values will likely top 100 degrees for some locations. However, we are not expecting to meet Heat Advisory criteria at this time. Patchy fog may develop across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley early Friday morning. Otherwise, no notable weather (other than the heat and humidity) is expected through the period. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ /Friday Night through Wednesday/ Tranquil weather is expected through the weekend as mid level ridging will spread east across the Southern Plains and into the Southeast U.S. A shortwave will track through the Plains on Saturday, but moisture will be too limited and forcing for ascent too far removed to result in any precipitation across our region. We`ll see temperatures in the mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday. By Monday, as ridging intensifies over the Southeastern U.S., deeper troughing will set up over the western CONUS. This will eventually allow a plume of deep tropical moisture to spread west across the Gulf around the periphery of the ridge and into the Texas coastal waters by Monday afternoon. A pronounced mid level deformation zone should be in place from the Big Bend region through North Texas by this time, and while this feature won`t result in any appreciable lift alone, it will be the least subsident zone in proximity to the strong ridge farther east. With an influx of tropical moisture and strong afternoon heating, we should see an uptick in scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of I-35 and across our southeastern counties. This weakness aloft will linger through mid week while we`ll have to watch for any tropical organization across the southwest Gulf. Scattered afternoon showers/storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday across the same areas to our east/southeast. With the extra cloud cover, we may shave a few degrees off our afternoon highs Monday through Wednesday, but the added humidity will still keep heat indices in the 98-102 degree range. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and light south to southeast winds below 10 knots will continue through the period. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Friday. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 74 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 94 73 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 91 68 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 92 72 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 92 71 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 94 73 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 92 70 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 92 72 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 92 73 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 92 71 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$