624
FXUS64 KFWD 201808
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

Anomalously warm temperatures will continue through Saturday as a
strong 592-593 dam ridge (approaching the 90th %tile of
climatology) remains anchored over the state of Texas. Expect
widespread afternoon highs in the 95-100 degree range this
afternoon. Persistent south-southwesterly flow has brought
elevated low-level moisture to the region marked by surface
dewpoints in the mid-60s to lower 70s. This will allow for heat
index values to tick upwards into the 100-105 degree range later
this afternoon across much of the region with a few locations
across North Texas exceeding 105 degrees (not widespread enough
for a Heat Advisory). Locations across the DFW Metroplex will
challenge record high low temperatures once again tonight with
temperatures expected to only fall into the mid- to upper 70s.
Temperatures elsewhere will fall into the lower 70s.

High clouds will increase in coverage tonight into Saturday ahead
of a storm system expected to shift over the Plains Sunday into
early next week. Another abnormally warm day is expected Saturday
with widespread temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s (7-12
degrees above-average for this time of year). Heat index values
will likely remain just below Heat Advisory criteria. Do take this
late summer heat seriously and take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones safe from heat-related illnesses.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 431 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/
/Saturday night Onward/

The main story of the long-term forecast is the onset of an
unsettled weather pattern expected Sunday into next week. As the
center of an upper level low moves into the central Great Plains,
a cold front will travel eastward/southward across the southern
Plains. For our area, rain chances will spread across our
northwestern counties on Sunday afternoon/evening as the front
provides some focus for convection. Coverage will remain fairly
isolated during this period as the greatest ascent stays north of
the area. The front should continue to move across the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing not only rain chances but also
cooler temperatures behind it. Highs on Monday will depend on the
location of the boundary. If the current forecast verifies, much
of the region will see highs in the upper 70s or 80s with the
exception of areas across the southeast (ahead of the boundary)
where highs may reach the lower 90s.

A second upper level disturbance is forecast to swing southward
toward the Southwest U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. With the support of
the lingering front, we should see additional scattered showers
and storms across our area during this period. The main hazard
with any activity during this period will be lightning and brief
heavy rain. However, average rainfall totals will likely remain
less than 1 inch. The good news is that the rain and/or clouds
will keep daytime highs in the 80s through mid-week. Rain chances
will come to an end Wednesday night with a slight warm up expected
towards the end of the week.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all
terminals with a south-southwest wind generally below 10 kts.
Another round of low stratus will nudge into Central Texas early
Saturday morning, but it should remain largely south of KACT.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  79  97  76  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                98  74  96  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               98  73  96  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              99  75  97  73  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            99  76  97  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas             100  78  98  76  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             98  74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           98  75  97  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              97  73  96  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       98  72  97  71  92 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$