051
FXUS64 KFWD 211849
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
149 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

Mid-level ridging will remain in control through a good chunk of
the weekend with hot and dry conditions persisting through at
least mid-afternoon Sunday for the entirety of the FWD CWA.
Temperatures will top in the mid- to upper 90s this afternoon with
heat index values inching above 100 degrees across most of the
region. A few locations peaking above 105 degree heat indices are
possible this afternoon across portions of North Texas and the DFW
Metroplex. Continue to take the proper precautions to keep you
and your loved ones safe from heat-related illnesses.

Another mild, humid night is expected tonight with overnight lows
in the low to mid-70s. A shortwave trough will gradually shift
over the Plains later tonight into Sunday sending a cold front
toward North Texas by late Sunday afternoon. FROPA will reach our
far northwestern zones around ~3-5PM Sunday evening with
scattered showers and storms likely along and in the vicinity of
the boundary. An axis of moderate instability along and just ahead
of the front with ~30-40 kts deep layer shear overhead will
support a few stronger storms late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday
evening across our far northwest with the potential for a
marginally severe storm or two not out of the question. Rain
chances will increase in coverage across our forecast area Sunday
night as the front continues to push south.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 257 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/
/Sunday Night through Next Week/

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through at least mid-
week with multiple opportunities for rain and near or just below
normal temperatures.

On Monday, rain and storm chances will spread eastward as the
cold front moves across our region. While the greatest forcing
will stay well north of our area due to the position of the upper
level trough, the front should still give us sufficient lift for
at least scattered showers and storm during the day. Given most of
the precipitation will occur behind the front, the main hazards
will be occasional lighting and brief heavy rain. The good news is
that the combination of rain and clouds will keep daytime highs
in the 70s and low 80s with the exception of areas ahead of the
boundary (the southern counties) where highs could still approach
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Large scale troughing across the central U.S. will send another
disturbance southward toward the southern Plains Tuesday and
Wednesday. This in combination with the lingering surface
boundary should give us a few more opportunities to see scattered
rain and perhaps a few storms. There are still some uncertainties
on the track of the wave, with some guidance showing higher
coverage and others keeping the chances for rain until Thursday.
For now, we will keep the model blend with PoPs ranging from
20-40% with the highest chances across the western half of the
region. The main hazards will again be brief heavy rain and
lightning. Otherwise, the afternoon temperatures will remain near
or just below normal through Friday with highs generally in the
80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the TAF period for all
terminals. Low stratus will nudge into portions of Central Texas
again later tonight into early Sunday morning. There is a ~30%
chance that MVFR or lower cigs approach KACT generally after
11Z-12Z Sunday morning. We opted to exclude the MVFR mention from
the TAF at this moment due to the low potential. Southerly winds
generally below 12 kts gusting to 20 kts at times are expected
through the TAF period.

Looking ahead, a cold front will push into North Texas from the
northwest Sunday evening through early Monday bring the chance for
scattered showers and storms.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  93  68  81  66 /   0   5  30  30  10
Waco                73  94  71  85  68 /   0   0  10  20  10
Paris               73  93  69  82  63 /   0   5  10  30  10
Denton              74  94  65  80  62 /   0   5  40  30  10
McKinney            74  94  67  81  63 /   0   5  20  30  10
Dallas              76  95  69  82  67 /   0   5  20  30  10
Terrell             74  94  69  84  64 /   0   0  10  30   5
Corsicana           74  95  72  86  68 /   0   0   5  20   5
Temple              71  94  70  87  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       72  93  62  79  61 /   0  20  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$