Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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084 FXUS64 KFWD 182030 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 330 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 112 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ /Through Thursday Afternoon/ An upper level ridge will continue to strengthen through the end of this week, leading to increasingly warmer temperatures each afternoon. Highs will range in the mid to upper 90s for most of North and Central Texas, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 mph with gusts upwards of 20 mph will be possible both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, expect rain-free conditions and generally sunny skies outside of some fair weather cumulus. There is a low chance for some low lying stratus tomorrow morning across portions of Central Texas, but this will generally remain impact-free for most. Temperatures will continue to be on the rise on Thursday, which is abnormal for this time of year. A few sites may even hit the century mark out west tomorrow, so it will certainly not feel like we are only days away from the autumnal equinox. Reeves && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Evening Through Early Next Week/ Abnormal heat will continue into the weekend, with the hottest temperatures expected to occur on Friday. Fortunately, it doesn`t look like our record high temperatures for our climate sites (DFW, Waco, and Killeen) will fall, though temperatures will be within a few degrees of record values. Similar to the previous forecasts, sided with slightly warmer guidance as the NBM continues to be a bit too low, with high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon. While only a handful of locations will reach triple digits, high humidity will send heat index values above 100 degrees for most locations. Some locations will see heat index values above 105 degrees, but we do not anticipate the need for a Heat Advisory as criteria will only be met for a single day. Despite this, ensure you`re practicing heat safety as the summer-like heat persists. On Saturday, an upper low will swing from the Four Corners Region into the Central Plains. A slight increase in cloud cover will result in a subtle decrease in temperatures Saturday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper low will drag a cold front through much of the Plains as it moves east over the weekend, but it`s still rather uncertain whether this front will reach our forecast area. The NBM is not advertising any frontal passage at this time; however, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring this front through North and Central Texas sometime Sunday or Monday. Sided closely with NBM for now, but some adjustments may be needed as confidence increases over the next day or two. Low rain chances are currently forecast for western North and Central Texas Sunday evening associated with convection near the front to our west. However, PoPs may need to be expanded and increased if confidence in FROPA for our area increases. Beyond this weekend, there is considerable uncertainty in what next week will entail. However, it appears temperatures will be closer to normal values. Some guidance hints at a cold front towards the middle of the week, with low chances for showers and storms returning around the same time. Barnes && .AVIATION... /Issued 112 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ /18z TAFs/ Concerns...Low Chance For MVFR Across Waco Tomorrow Morning. VFR will generally prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Southerly flow has more or less been reestablished across the region, around 10 knots with occasionally higher gusts possible through the afternoon. Otherwise, expect sunny skies with passing fair weather cumulus. There is a low chance (<20%) of MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings across portions of Central Texas tomorrow morning. This may briefly impact Waco through 13-16z. Reeves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 98 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 70 95 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 74 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 74 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 76 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 72 97 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 98 72 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$