200
FXUS64 KFWD 190718
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/
/Through Thursday/

Rain chances on the far outer periphery of PTC One continue to
wane within our forecast area. The greatest moisture content with
this feature has trended more westward with each passing model
run as the system drifts towards the Texas Coastal Bend. Total
rain amounts within our CWA over the next 48 hours will range from
0" in much of North Texas, to perhaps around 0.5" in our southern
Central Texas zones. No severe weather or flooding issues are
forecast. The good news is that a substantial increase in cloud
cover will offer a rare mid-June day with highs in the 80s, along
with a decent easterly breeze. This cloud cover will begin
departing the area to the west tomorrow, and highs will rebound
into the lower 90s accordingly as the mid-level weakness is
replaced by a strengthening upper ridge.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A mid level ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will build
southwest into North and Central Texas starting Thursday night,
providing hot, humid, and rain-free conditions for the weekend.
Another easterly wave will develop over the northwest Gulf and
move inland over Mexico and South Texas early next week.
Unfortunately, it will only increase dewpoints and heat indices
locally, while the ridge shuts off any convective attempts and
shunts all precipitation to our south.

Triple digit heat index values will begin on Saturday, and will
increase a little each afternoon Sunday through the first half of
next week. Heat Advisory criteria looks like a good bet starting
Monday, and conditions will only worsen Tuesday and next
Wednesday. Several spots may even reach or exceed Excessive Heat
Warning criteria (heat index 110 or greater) sometime around the
middle of next week. One potential source of relief may occur
Tuesday or next Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts west of the
forecast area, placing a northwest flow regime overhead. This
could bring a storm complex or two southeast into the area and
provide at least a temporary reprieve. Otherwise it looks like the
first week of astronomical summer will begin with a hot streak.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/
/06z TAFs/

Very ragged low stratus at 3-4 kft currently exists across parts
of North Texas, but will become more widespread in coverage by the
early morning hours. The greatest potential for cigs below 3 kft
will remain west of the TAF sites, but VFR cigs are likely to
affect most of the airports later this morning. A scattering of
the low deck should occur heading into the afternoon while light
precipitation falling from a mid cloud deck pivots northwestward
into the area. Rain chances are too low to include at Metroplex
TAF sites, but will carry a window of VCSH at Waco where showers
should be more numerous through the afternoon and evening. A
modest easterly breeze of 8-12 kts with occasional higher gusts
will prevail through the period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  76  92  76  94 /  20  20   5   0   0
Waco                83  74  91  74  92 /  30  20  10   5   5
Paris               87  73  91  72  93 /  10   5   0   0   0
Denton              89  73  92  73  94 /  20  20   5   0   0
McKinney            88  74  92  73  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
Dallas              88  76  93  76  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
Terrell             85  74  92  73  93 /  20  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           86  76  93  74  94 /  20  10   0   0   0
Temple              82  73  91  73  92 /  50  30  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       88  73  90  73  92 /  20  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$