681
FXUS64 KFWD 231824
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

Increasing temperatures as we start a new week will be the main
weather hazard across North and Central Texas. Temperatures today
will top out in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees throughout our
region with heat index values closer to 100-105. Considering the
forecast for the rest of the week, today will likely be the
"coolest" day through at least Thursday.

Tomorrow`s temperatures, coupled with slightly higher dew points,
will yield heat index values between 100-107 degrees. The area
that is most likely to see heat-related impacts tomorrow will be
along and east of I-35 where heat-related illness may be more
prevalent. For that reason, a Heat Advisory will be in effect
starting noon tomorrow. The Heat Advisory will likely be extended
in time and expanded to account for the increasing temperatures.

Winds today and tomorrow will remain out of the south, generally
between 5-10 mph.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/
/Monday Onward/

The upper ridge will remain centered overhead through the first
half of the workweek before shifting westward by Wednesday.
Subsidence and resultant hot/dry weather will prevail, with highs
climbing into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees on a daily basis.
Afternoon heat index values will also begin to consistently reach
or exceed 105, and prolonged heat headlines are likely. Heat
index values may reach a maximum on Wednesday as richer low-level
moisture is ushered into the area. While previous days will have
seen dewpoints mix out in the the lower 70s and 60s during peak
heating, they are likely to hold in the low to mid 70s even during
the heat of the day through the midweek period. A few heat index
values exceeding 110 are possible.

The chances for any convection during the extend period are very
low, although they are non-zero on Wednesday and Thursday. As the
upper ridge becomes centered to our west, northerly flow aloft
may allow for Central Plains convection to be steered southward
towards North Texas late Wednesday or Thursday. Chances for
measurable rainfall within the CWA are only 10-20% though, and
most areas will stay dry through the entire upcoming week. Unless
next week`s heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at
least some remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will
likely continue into the late week period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...None

VFR and south winds will continue through the forecast period.
Fair weather cumulus clouds have already developed and will
continue through around sunset. Mostly clear skies are expected
tonight with another round of cumulus expected tomorrow afternoon.
Wind speeds will remain below 11 knots through the forecast
period.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  99  80  99  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                76  96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  97  78  97  78 /   5   5   0   5  10
Denton              76  99  78 100  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
McKinney            77  99  78  99  79 /   5   5   0   0   5
Dallas              79  99  80 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             76  97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           77  98  78  97  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              74  96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  98  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$