983
FXUS64 KFWD 201750
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Isolated showers have developed along and west of the I-35
corridor as we remain on the periphery of Tropical Depression
Alberto. While most of the activity this afternoon will be west
of I-35, an isolated shower can`t be ruled out further east.
Therefore, low (10%) PoPs have been introduced to the worded
forecast for most of the area to account for this potential. These
showers should slowly push west throughout the day, eventually
dissipating shortly after sunset.

Aside from the rain chances, dense cloud cover will keep areas
along and west of US-281 mostly in the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon. The rest of the region will see afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s. Friday will be slightly warmer given there will
be fewer clouds to filter the sunshine, with most locations
warming into the 90s. While dew points will mix out some during
the afternoon, heat index values could top 100 degrees for a few
locations tomorrow.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Strong ridging aloft will provide hot and rain-free weather area-
wide this weekend. Highs in the lower and mid 90s on Saturday will
increase to the mid and upper 90s on Sunday. Meanwhile, a second
tropical disturbance will develop in the southern Gulf, but the
ridge will once again keep the system well south and send it west
across Mexico. Unfortunately, the tropical system will have a far
enough reach to increase moisture across the region, leading to
uncomfortably hot conditions starting Sunday. Conditions will be
exacerbated on Monday when the ridge axis shifts to our west,
creating northwest flow aloft. This flow will push a front south
to near the Red River, adding a few more degrees to our daytime
high due to compressional warming south of the surface boundary.
Highs in the upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70s
will push Monday afternoon heat index values into the 105 to 110
degree range for areas generally along and east of I-35 (where the
highest moisture content will reside).

Similar conditions are in store for Tuesday and may actually
expand farther west to encompass all of the CWA. There is a bright
side, however, as guidance continues to hint at the possibility of
thunderstorms developing around the east and northeast flank of
the ridge and providing some temporary relief from the heat. The
first such activity would occur on Tuesday, but would be most
likely limited to the far East Texas counties. Better chances for
convection appear likely on Wednesday as another front pushes
south, this time potentially accompanied by a line of showers and
storms. The combination of precipitation and rain-cooled air will
hopefully provide at least a brief respite from the early to mid
week heat.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and east to southeast winds will continue. Wind speeds will be
around 10 to 12 knots during the afternoon today and tomorrow, and
around 5 to 7 knots during the overnight period.

Isolated showers have developed across western North and Central
Texas. While a stray shower can`t be ruled out near any of the
terminals this afternoon, the potential is too low to warrant a
mention in the TAFs for now. MVFR stratus may impact the KACT
terminal for a few hours Friday morning, but it will likely be
intermittent.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  95  77  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                91  74  92  73  93 /  20  10   0   0   0
Paris               91  71  93  72  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  75  94  73  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  74  94  74  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              93  76  95  76  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  73  94  73  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           93  74  93  75  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              90  73  92  72  93 /  20  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       91  74  93  73  95 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$