788
FXUS64 KFWD 242340
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
640 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Today was hot with most locations east of I-35 and south of I-30
achieving heat index values between 105 and 109. An influx of
moisture tonight will result in higher heat index values across
the region tomorrow, with most locations eclipsing 105 and a few
locations peaking near 110. We do not plan to make any changes to
our Heat Headlines with this forecast update.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

The summer heat is upon North and Central Texas as an upper-level
ridge has settled atop our region. This ridge, which spans across
much of the Southern Plains, will help keep precipitation at bay.
The main weather concern today, and likely through through the
rest of the week, will be the hot conditions that will increase
the risk for heat related illnesses. Temperatures will range from
the mid 90s to around 100 this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon.

With south/southeasterly winds in place today, slightly better
moisture is expected across our region compared to yesterday.
Although temperatures will be similar to yesterday, dew points
will be a few degrees higher. This will translate into higher heat
index values, generally ranging from 100-109 degrees. The more
concentrated heat is expected to be along and east of I-35,
therefore, a Heat Advisory is already in effect.

Tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to
today, thus, more widespread 105+ heat index values are expected.
The heat advisory will begin at noon tomorrow for areas west of
I-35 and likely be extended for several more days.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Strong ridging aloft centered over West Texas will become
compromised on its east flank late Tuesday into Wednesday by a
shortwave trough dropping southeast from the Plains into the
Mississippi Valley. This disturbance will help drag a cold front
south to near the Red River, where it will stall on Wednesday. The
front and the shortwave together will provide a couple of
opportunities for thunderstorms, the first being Tuesday night
when a east-west oriented linear complex will approach from the
north. Storms should weaken as the approach the Red River, but
will likely hold together long enough to impact areas along and
north of Highway 380. A second opportunity will be Wednesday
afternoon when isolated storms may develop along the stationary
front and move south, which would also affect areas mainly near
the Red River. It is possible that convection may survive as far
south as the I-20 corridor, but probabilities are fairly low
(around 20%). Severe weather appears unlikely at this time in
either case, but gusty winds and heavy rain may accompany the
stronger storms.

Otherwise, the heat will continue to be the main concern for the
next week. It is possible that outflow associated with Tuesday
night/Wednesday convection may knock a few degrees off dewpoints
and/or temperatures, which may allow for a break in the Heat
Advisory for the northern counties for a day. Unfortunately,
compressional warming south of the front will add a few degrees
for areas that miss out on rain or thunderstorm outflow. The ridge
will expand east on Thursday, shutting off rain chances once
again and immersing the entire region in hot and humid conditions
Thursday through the end of the forecast period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow will prevail for most of the night. A surge of
patchy MVFR stratus will move north tonight and overspread parts
of the area (mainly Central Texas) tomorrow morning. The chance
of a ceiling at the D10 terminals is around 20% and greater than
50% at ACT. The patchy nature of the stratus should result in
intermittent ceilings before it lifts and scatters into a Cu field
in the afternoon.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  82 100  81 /   0   0  20  10   5
Waco                78  99  78  98  79 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               78  98  78  96  76 /   0   5  20  30   5
Denton              78  99  79  99  78 /   0   5  20  10   5
McKinney            79  98  79  98  78 /   0   5  20  20   5
Dallas              80  99  81  99  81 /   0   0  20  10   5
Terrell             78  98  78  96  77 /   0   0  10  10   5
Corsicana           79  98  79  97  79 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              77  98  77  98  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       78 100  79 100  77 /   0   0  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$