070
FXUS64 KFWD 251746
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/

The continuation of this prolonged period of heat remains the
primary weather concern through the short-term forecast period as
strong mid-/upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert
Southwest. Expect afternoon highs in the mid- to upper 90s this
afternoon across much of the area, with a few locations across the
Big Country and the DFW Metroplex peaking near/at 100 degrees. The
spatial coverage of 100-degree temperatures may increase on
Wednesday, especially across portions of North Texas as 24-26
degreeC 850mb temperatures sprawl overhead the region. A steady
influx of moist, southerly low-level flow will keep humidity on
the higher end and heat index values in the 102-108 range this
afternoon and 105-110 range Wednesday afternoon. Warm overnight
lows in the upper 70s to low 80s will also add onto the heat
stress. There is some uncertainty with how convection during the
midweek period unfolds across North Texas (discussed below) and
how it impacts temperatures. Nonetheless, we have extended the
Heat Advisory through Wednesday afternoon. Continue to take all of
the necessary precautions to ensure you, your loved ones, and
your pets stay safe in the heat!

North-northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge will increase the potential for a couple
thunderstorm complexes to move out of the Plains and toward North
Texas during the midweek period. Convective initiation is expected
to take place later this afternoon/evening across portions of
southern Iowa/northern Missouri/southeastern Nebraska in the
vicinity of a cold front extending out of surface low pressure
centered over southeastern Ontario. Rapid upscale growth into a
south-southeastward propagating MCS is expected during the
overnight hours. High-resolution guidance has continued to
downtrend in the thunderstorm potential for our forecast area
during the overnight hours. It is looking more likely that this
MCS or remnants of the complex will approach our northeastern
zones later Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms may develop along this system`s outflow
or in the vicinity of the cold front across Central Oklahoma late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Northerly mean flow
and 15-20 kt 850mb winds would support south-southwesterly
propagating clusters/complexes of thunderstorms into North Texas
late Wednesday. However, with a loss of daytime heating Wednesday
evening and these systems being so tied to mesoscale processes, it
is uncertain how far these storms will maintain into our forecast
area. Nonetheless, the environment will support strong wind gusts
and isolated small hail, so make sure to keep updated with the
forecast over the next couple of days.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

In a nutshell, it will remain hot and humid from mid-week through
early next week. If isolated storms do manage to develop
Wednesday afternoon near any outflow boundaries, they should
dissipate quickly Wednesday night with the loss of surface
heating. The mid-level ridge axis will shift eastward at the end
of the week, remaining centered around the ArkLaTex region through
early next week. Subsidence under the ridge will yield plenty of
sun and eliminate any appreciable chances for precipitation.
Temperatures Thursday through Monday will not vary much day to day
with highs mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 and lows from
the mid 70s to around 80. Southerly low level flow will also
supply a constant feed of Gulf moisture, keeping humidity and
afternoon heat index values high. The current Heat Advisory will
more than likely continue for most if not all of the forecast area
this weekend through early next week. The good news is that it
looks like we will stay below Excessive Heat Warning criteria.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions with SCT to BKN 035-050 cigs will persist through
the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening. Persistent
moist, southerly low-level flow will likely bring about another
period of MVFR cigs to KACT and the D10 terminals Wednesday
morning. Southerly surface winds generally between 10-20 kts will
continue through the TAF period.

Looking just beyond this TAF period, low chances for thunderstorms
will exist near the DFW Metroplex late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. A VCTS inclusion will be decided in later TAF
updates.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  81  99  81 100 /   0   5  10  10   0
Waco                96  79  96  78  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
Paris               98  78  97  75  96 /  10  10  20  20   0
Denton              99  81 101  78 100 /   5   5  10  20   0
McKinney            98  80  99  78  99 /   0  10  10  20   0
Dallas              98  81  99  80 101 /   0   5  10  20   0
Terrell             97  78  96  77  97 /   0   5  10  20   0
Corsicana           97  80  97  80  99 /   0   5  10  10   0
Temple              96  78  97  76  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       98  80 100  77 101 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$