031
FXUS64 KFWD 241723
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

The summer heat is upon North and Central Texas as an upper-level
ridge has settled atop our region. This ridge, which spans across
much of the Southern Plains, will help keep precipitation at bay.
The main weather concern today, and likely through through the
rest of the week, will be the hot conditions that will increase
the risk for heat related illnesses. Temperatures will range from
the mid 90s to around 100 this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon.

With south/southeasterly winds in place today, slightly better
moisture is expected across our region compared to yesterday.
Although temperatures will be similar to yesterday, dew points
will be a few degrees higher. This will translate into higher heat
index values, generally ranging from 100-109 degrees. The more
concentrated heat is expected to be along and east of I-35,
therefore, a Heat Advisory is already in effect.

Tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to
today, thus, more widespread 105+ heat index values are expected.
The heat advisory will begin at noon tomorrow for areas west of
I-35 and likely be extended for several more days.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/
/Tuesday Onward/

Upper ridging will shift westward by midweek, with amplifying
northerly flow present through the Central Plains. While this
will offer little relief in our temperatures locally, the pattern
may favor very isolated convection or at least some remnant cloud
cover to drift towards North Texas from upstream activity in KS/OK
Tuesday night or Wednesday. However, the potential for any
measurable rainfall to occur in North Texas is only 10-20%, and
most areas should plan on remaining dry through the entire
workweek. An extension/expansion of heat products should be
expected over the next few days with little opportunity for relief
in sight.

The ridge will begin to elongate eastward through the
late week period, with subsidence and resultant hot/dry weather
prevailing into the upcoming weekend. A stalled frontal boundary
to our north may be convectively active heading into the weekend,
but right now the main rain chances look to remain north of the
Red River. Heat index values should continue to reach or exceed
105 on a daily basis with high temperatures mostly falling in a
range of 97-102.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/


With upper-level high pressure in control, precipitation is not
expected within D10 airspace or in Central Texas. Afternoon
cumulus clouds have developed causing no impacts to the airspace.
The current southerly winds will continue through the rest of this
TAF period with no significant changes expected.

There is a low chance (<30%) that MVFR ceilings impact KACT
closer to sunrise. This plume of moisture is likely to skirt KACT
with a higher areal coverage of MVFR ceilings across the Brazos
Valley. If the probability increases any further, an MVFR ceiling
will need to be included for tomorrow.

Similar to today, additional cumulus clouds are expected tomorrow
afternoon. The clouds should remain fairly scattered AOA FL040.
Impacts to area airports are not expected.


Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  81  99  81 100 /   0   0   0   5  10
Waco                97  78  96  78  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               97  78  96  78  97 /   5   5   5  10  20
Denton              99  78 100  79 100 /   0   5   5   5  10
McKinney            98  78  97  79  99 /   0   0   5  10  10
Dallas              99  81  99  81 100 /   0   0   0   5  10
Terrell             97  77  96  78  97 /   5   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           97  78  97  78  97 /   5   5   0   5  10
Temple              96  76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       98  78  98  78 100 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$