439
FXUS64 KFWD 211100
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No changes needed to the forecast through Sunday. Hot and dry
today with a few passing high clouds. A cold front will approach
our northwest counties tomorrow afternoon and bring an increased
chance for showers/storms, but rain chances will increase later
Sunday evening/night.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Sunday/

Mid level ridging will remain in control of North Texas weather
through much of the weekend resulting in hot and dry weather, but
changes are on the way early next week. In the meantime, a minimum
in PW over North and East Texas associated with the mid level
ridge will linger through Saturday night. Southerly winds will
slowly tap into better moisture, but the western Gulf is
relatively dry at this time. This means we`ll warm up nicely again
today with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
topping out just above 100 degrees.

Mid level ridging will begin to break down a bit later tonight and
Sunday as a fairly strong shortwave spreads out of the Four
Corners region and into the Plains. As it does, a cold front will
slide southward and should be located across West Texas into
Central Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing during this time off to our
northwest. While the main shortwave will pass well off to our
north, the front will still have some southerly push and should
enter our northwest counties after dark Sunday evening. We`ll have
some 20-40% PoPs late Sunday afternoon across our far northwest
counties but these should increase significantly overnight.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 257 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/
/Sunday Night through Next Week/

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through at least mid-
week with multiple opportunities for rain and near or just below
normal temperatures.

On Monday, rain and storm chances will spread eastward as the
cold front moves across our region. While the greatest forcing
will stay well north of our area due to the position of the upper
level trough, the front should still give us sufficient lift for
at least scattered showers and storm during the day. Given most of
the precipitation will occur behind the front, the main hazards
will be occasional lighting and brief heavy rain. The good news is
that the combination of rain and clouds will keep daytime highs
in the 70s and low 80s with the exception of areas ahead of the
boundary (the southern counties) where highs could still approach
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Large scale troughing across the central U.S. will send another
disturbance southward toward the southern Plains Tuesday and
Wednesday. This in combination with the lingering surface
boundary should give us a few more opportunities to see scattered
rain and perhaps a few storms. There are still some uncertainties
on the track of the wave, with some guidance showing higher
coverage and others keeping the chances for rain until Thursday.
For now, we will keep the model blend with PoPs ranging from
20-40% with the highest chances across the western half of the
region. The main hazards will again be brief heavy rain and
lightning. Otherwise, the afternoon temperatures will remain near
or just below normal through Friday with highs generally in the
80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south winds around 10 kt.
No significant aviation concerns are expected through the period,
but a cold front will approach Sunday evening/night with increased
rain/storm chances and a wind direction change.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  77  93  68  81 /   0   0   0  30  30
Waco                98  72  92  71  85 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               96  73  93  69  82 /   0   0   0  10  30
Denton              97  74  93  65  80 /   0   0   5  40  30
McKinney            97  74  93  67  81 /   0   0   5  20  30
Dallas              98  76  93  69  82 /   0   0   0  20  30
Terrell             98  73  93  69  84 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           97  74  93  72  86 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              97  72  92  70  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
Mineral Wells       96  72  91  62  79 /   0   0  10  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$