243
FXUS64 KFWD 230908
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
408 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The current forecast is in good shape with most locations
remaining below 100 degrees this afternoon. Although afternoon
heat index values will be a few degrees higher than the actual
temperature, most spots will stay below 105 since daytime mixing
will lower afternoon dew points into the 60s. With that being
said, we will not be issuing a Heat Advisory today (we need two
consecutive days of heat index values 105 or above or temperatures
of at least 103 to reach criteria). However, a Heat Advisory will
likely be necessary for portions of the forecast area early next
week.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight Through Sunday Night/

A stagnant weather pattern will continue as we head into next
week with high pressure remaining anchored from the Desert
Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Most locations should
stay just below 100 degrees Sunday afternoon, but max heat index
values will average between 100 and 105. There will be some relief
from the heat both tonight and Sunday night with lows falling
into the 70s for most.

Subsidence under the ridge and shallow moisture will hinder any
showers/storms from developing, but fair weather cumulus will be
present during the day.

Overall, the wind will remain from the south in the 5 to 10 mph
range through Sunday night, but it may briefly become
southwesterly Sunday afternoon. Any southwesterly wind component
may push temperatures over 100 degrees, especially west of the
I-35 corridor.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/
/Monday Onward/

The upper ridge will remain centered overhead through the first
half of the workweek before shifting westward by Wednesday.
Subsidence and resultant hot/dry weather will prevail, with highs
climbing into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees on a daily basis.
Afternoon heat index values will also begin to consistently reach
or exceed 105, and prolonged heat headlines are likely. Heat
index values may reach a maximum on Wednesday as richer low-level
moisture is ushered into the area. While previous days will have
seen dewpoints mix out in the the lower 70s and 60s during peak
heating, they are likely to hold in the low to mid 70s even during
the heat of the day through the midweek period. A few heat index
values exceeding 110 are possible.

The chances for any convection during the extend period are very
low, although they are non-zero on Wednesday and Thursday. As the
upper ridge becomes centered to our west, northerly flow aloft
may allow for Central Plains convection to be steered southward
towards North Texas late Wednesday or Thursday. Chances for
measurable rainfall within the CWA are only 10-20% though, and
most areas will stay dry through the entire upcoming week. Unless
next week`s heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at
least some remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will
likely continue into the late week period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

...VFR with south flow...

Subsidence under high pressure aloft will limit clouds across
North and Central Texas to only some daytime Cu. A south to
southwest wind will remain in the 5 to 11 knot range but
occasional higher daytime gusts will be possible.


79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  79  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                95  76  96  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               97  77  97  76  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Denton              99  77  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            98  77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              99  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             97  76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           97  77  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              95  75  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       98  74  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$