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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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585 FXUS64 KFWD 300822 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ /Through Monday/ Mid-level high pressure remains in control across the region leading to yet another day of above normal temperatures. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect given much of the region is expected to experience heat index values of at least 105 degrees for a few hours this afternoon. There will be a weak front that will inch southward early this morning across Oklahoma. Although this front is not expected to reach North Texas, a few remnant outflow boundaries may move southward, firing off a few showers or storms this afternoon. Those along the immediate Red River will have the best rain chances, generally around 20%. Tonight, expect warm temperatures once again, with the DFW Metroplex remaining in the 80s while the rest of the area dips into the mid to upper 70s. The heat intensifies slightly as we start a new work week with widespread triple digit temperatures across the region. In addition, a few locations may reach heat index values of around 110 degrees. At this time, the 110 degrees heat index looks to be more isolated in nature. If future guidance shows more widespread heat index values of 110+, the excessive heat warnings may make a comeback. Given the heat and plenty of moisture in place, a few pop-up storms will be possible across East Texas. Coverage should remain minimal with most locations expected to remain dry. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/ Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week. Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into the region and would serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend. Barnes && .AVIATION... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ South winds and VFR skies are in place at this time. High clouds are working their way south across Oklahoma, however, no impacts are expected to any of our TAF sites. As we approach sunrise, a surge of MVFR stratus will move northward into Central Texas, likely impacting KACT for a few hours. Any low clouds should gradually disperse by late in the morning leaving behind VFR for the rest of the forecast period. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 82 100 82 102 / 5 5 5 0 0 Waco 98 78 99 79 101 / 0 0 5 0 0 Paris 95 76 94 75 97 / 20 10 10 0 0 Denton 99 79 101 79 102 / 5 5 5 0 0 McKinney 98 79 99 79 101 / 5 5 5 0 0 Dallas 100 82 101 82 102 / 5 5 5 0 0 Terrell 97 78 98 78 99 / 5 5 10 0 0 Corsicana 98 79 100 80 101 / 5 5 10 0 0 Temple 98 77 99 77 101 / 5 5 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 99 77 101 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$