126
FXUS64 KFWD 272323
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Friday Night/

Isolated to scattered showers and storms have occurred this
afternoon south of I-20 and the stalled front, and will continue
to pop up over the next few hours as we get past peak heating.
This activity has remained well-behaved, but strong downburst
winds and lightning will be the main threats with any stronger
storm through this evening. Any lingering storms will dissipate
completely late this evening with the loss of sunlight. Overnight
temperatures will be warm in the 70s and low 80s.

The rest of the work week will be hot and dry. The upper level
ridge will be ushered eastward overtop the region in response to
an eastward-moving closed low in the PACNW. This will sock North
and Central Texas inside subsident, warming air and staunch rain
chances. Oppressive summer heat will persist, with Friday
afternoon high temperatures expected to peak in the mid 90s to
near 103-104. The Excessive Heat Warning in the Metroplex and
surrounding counties will be allowed to expire at 7 PM this
evening due to slightly drier air filtering in by tomorrow.
However, Friday afternoon humidity will be high enough to keep
peak heat index values between 100-110. Hence the Heat Advisory
has been extended/re-introduced for all of North and Central
Texas through 7 PM Friday.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/
/Friday Night into Next Week/

The heat will remain the dominant headline as we move through the
weekend into next week. A mid-level ridge will continue scorching
North and Central Texas, which is slowly moving its way east to
reposition itself across portions of the Southern Plains. Monday
and Tuesday will see the strongest subsidence as the ridge peaks
right over head. This will result in afternoon highs rising above
the century mark for most locations, especially across our west.
Heat indices will generally range between 105 and 112, meaning
future heat products will almost be guaranteed each day. Continue
to remain vigilant when fighting against the heat and take the
proper precautions to stay safe, especially for those vulnerable.

The forecast period remains mostly rain-free, with the exception
being through Sunday where a subtle shortwave may move across to
our north. A weak surface boundary may push into our northeastern
counties, which could result in isolated thunderstorms. Coverage
should remain quite sparse, and most locations will remain dry.

While Independence Day sits just outside of the long term
forecast period, preliminary data seems to suggest hot and dry
conditions for any festivities. Continue to check for updates!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A quiet forecast is in store for the TAF sites over the next 24-30
hours as south to southeasterly winds and VFR prevail. Isolated
showers and storms are currently ongoing near ACT, but direct
impacts to the terminals over the next several hours are low
enough to continue the VCTS through 02Z. Otherwise, it will be dry
and hot. Southeasterly winds will veer more southerly overnight,
and then increase in speed to around 13 kts with slightly higher
gusts over tomorrow afternoon.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 100  81  99  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                80  99  79  98  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  95  78  96  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              79 101  79 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            77  99  79  99  80 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              80 100  80 100  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  97  78  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           80  98  80  98  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              80  99  79  98  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       79 102  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100-101-
105>107-115-116-120>123-129-130-135-141>143-146>148-156>162-174-
175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ102>104-117>119-131>134-144-145.

&&

$$