123
FXUS65 KGGW 280921
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
321 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Breezy conditions are expected today behind a cold front, with
gusts up to 50 mph accelerated by rain showers.

2) Cooler than normal temperatures through Saturday become near
normal by Sunday.

3) A more unsettled pattern returns late Sunday when severe
thunderstorms are possible.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Vertically stacked low pressure over the Prairie Provinces will
drop into Montana today, bringing showers, isolated afternoon
thunderstorms and plenty of wind. Cold air advection and cloud
cover will limit highs to just the upper 50s and 60s, coolest for
the date since 1995 for Glasgow.

Upper ridging will guide warmer and dry weather into early Sunday before
more ensembles hint at active weather next week. This next system
looks to move in late Sunday with ingredients present for strong
to severe storms. Low-level moisture with a strengthening low-
level jet and upper trough will be present in the evening. This
gives the potential for a line of storms containing severe gusts
and other cells with hail.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high for the general pattern through Sunday morning
and temperatures not straying far from seasonal normals. There is
medium confidence with lack of detail on the extent of severe
weather risk and timing of thunderstorms heading into early next
week.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR - MVFR.

DISCUSSION: A frontal system gives high (70-90%) confidence for
rain showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The arrival
time will range from around 14Z at KGGW to 19Z for KGDV, with
activity mostly diminishing by 00Z. This will come along with
widespread MVFR ceilings and brief MVFR visibility during and
just after the precipitation.

WINDS: Increasing west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots,
gusting to 40 knots. Then, decreasing out of the north 10 to 20
knots this evening and becoming light/variable overnight.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow