239
FXUS65 KGGW 052009
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
209 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty west to northwest winds through this evening

- Dry and warmer weather through the end of the week


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A departing low pressure system moving across central
Saskatchewan and a strong jet stream pushing across the northern
Rockies will sustain strong winds through today. The focus of
strongest winds by this afternoon will shift from the Little
Rockies toward the far northeast corner of Montana, where
sustained winds and gusts will near High Wind Warning criteria of
40 and 58 mph, respectively.

Ensembles show a broad ridging pattern providing steady or
gradually warming temperatures over the next week, along with dry
conditions through at least Sunday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:
AFTERNOON: Confidence in periods between Thursday night and
Saturday night has decreased quite a bit in the last 24 hours.
Ensembles are having trouble resolving a cold push down the
Canadian Plains and where it moves to before the high pressure
ridge to the west moves into Montana and resettles the forecast.
Some runs take the southern extent of the cold pool to the central
US Plains while others are sending it east into upper Midwest and
lower Ontario. This will increase the range of deviations in
temperature solutions for daytime highs and overnight lows to be
wider than normal during this time, which in turns lower the
confidence in the forecast.

MORNING: Winds today were blended with the NBM 90th percentile to
better capture their strength based on latest observations and
trends. This gives medium to high (60-80%) confidence for winds
staying just below High Wind Warning criteria outside of SW
Phillips, but will be most marginal over Sheridan county this
afternoon. For Thursday and beyond, have opted to stay close to
the baseline reflecting high confidence for warmer and drier
conditions with the associated ridge.

-Zanker



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 1905Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Afternoon and cumulus fields will disappear along
with calming winds around sundown as the low pressure system moves
off to the east. Good flying weather will then be in play tonight
through tomorrow.

WIND: West to Northwest at 20 to 35 kts, gusting 45 kts through
this afternoon. Calming rapidly after sundown to 10 to 15 kts
through the night. Increasing to 15 to 20 kts Thursday afternoon.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Sheridan.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow