915
FXUS65 KGGW 162012
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
212 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler temperatures starting today, with the coldest readings
  occurring on Monday and Tuesday.

- More widespread rain moves in during Monday and Tuesday.

- Warming trend later this week, but things remain unsettled with
  daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Today will be cooler as cold air advection moves in behind the
departing cold front. A little break in the action overall before
a stronger Pacific trough moves in tomorrow bringing widespread
rain and even cooler temperatures at 10-20 degrees below mid June
averages for both Monday and Tuesday. A warming trend begins
Wednesday with temperatures warming close to late June averages by
the end of the week. Still unsettled with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continuing to be a possibility.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:

+++ Main change from the morning forecast package has been for the
storm total QPF for the event for Monday - Tuesday night system.
Overall, values for this time period fell between a tenth to two
tenths of an inch. The biggest changes were for the areas in the
periphery of the band of rain stretching across northeast Montana.
This means locations like northern Phillips and southern Wibaux
counties may end up being drier than presently forecast should the
precip only graze those areas. +++

For the Monday to Tuesday PM system, QPF amounts remain about the
same, with a probability around 70-80% for at least 0.25", 50-70%
for 0.50", and 20-50% for 1".

From Wednesday onward confidence is moderate on a gradual warming
trend, but low on precipitation chances. Models diverge between
a continued trough over the area or bringing in some weak ridging
which would impact the precipitation chances each afternoon.

-Bernhart/Enriquez


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 2010Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR through tonight. Mostly MVFR Monday

DISCUSSION: Dry and windy conditions through tonight transition to
a wet and cooler pattern. Isolated scattered showers develop
across the region close to midnight-2am time frame, with the
bigger surge of showers/thunderstorms picking up west of KGGW
through noon on Monday, then spreading eastward Monday afternoon.

WIND: WNW`ly winds subside after 5 pm, becoming light and variable
tonight. Monday, winds become more NE`ly at 10-15kt, gusting to 20
kts.

-Enriquez


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow