903
FXUS65 KGGW 251139
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
539 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and dry conditions last through Wednesday. A more active
  weather pattern begins Wednesday night.

- A cold front Thursday night will bring the next chance for
  strong to severe thunderstorms to the region.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

High pressure over the region will move east today, with a
shortwave sliding along the Canadian border. Dry and warm weather
will persist, with any thunderstorms associated with the shortwave
staying just north and east of the state. Ridge then builds over
the western states, with high pressure sliding into the northern
Plains. By Wednesday afternoon, dewpoints will begin to rise with
increasing southeast low level flow. Combined with southwest flow
aloft with upper low moving into the Pacific northwest, the stage
is being set for the return of showers and thunderstorms to for
the end of the week. Strongest storms will likely be on Thursday
afternoon and evening with the upper low moving into southern
Alberta and cold front pushing out from the front range.

As the upper low moves east toward central Canada on Friday,
colder air will push south into Montana, for significant drop in
temperatures for Friday and Saturday. With cold air instability
and lingering moisture, a few storms could pop up on Friday.

By Saturday a pattern repeat develops with high pressure/upper
ridge moving across the northern Plains and trof pushing into the
Pacific northwest for another round of thunderstorms Sunday night
through Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

No significant deviations to forecast made. With the developing
pattern late in the week, SPC has put the eastern half of the cwa
in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms for day 3
(Thursday/Thursday night). Behind the front with the cold air
advection, probability for needing a Lake Wind Advisory is high.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Dry conditions are expected over the next couple days as high
pressure dominates. Next chance for any precipitation will be
Wednesday night.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow