Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
502 FXUS65 KGGW 220814 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 214 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Slow warm up to the 80s for highs by mid week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Only thing of note is a weak and dry cold front passing through the area Sunday night through Monday morning which will bring a few clouds and a slight increase in the winds, but the cold air advection will only delay our warming trend by maybe a day and not really bring a drop in high temperatures for Monday. By Tuesday a strong ridge over the front range will generate a chinook, move in, and bump our temperatures as much as 15 to 20 degrees above season normal by Wednesday. By Thursday the ridge begins to shift east as a Pacific Northwest trough moves onshore. At this time it looks to be pretty dry with little to nothing in the way of rainfall, however cool air advection behind the trough may bring our temperatures back closer to seasonal average by next weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in warming trend. Confidence begins to break down around Wednesday night into Friday. A back and forth battle between two airmasses the PCNW trough and the hot Desert SW air occurs which changes positioning of the fronts from ensemble to ensemble as they pass by. By Saturday confidence is below average as the progressive zonal pattern has troughs and ridges completely out of phase with each other in the ensembles. -Bernhart/GAH && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 0700Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: Dry conditions and fair skies most of today, but mid level cloud cover is expected to increase by tonight. WIND: Light and variable this morning. S at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. Becoming light again and SW tonight. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow