Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
804 FXUS65 KGGW 120354 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 954 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Warmer than average temperatures look to continue over the next few days, especially Friday and Saturday. 2) Gusty west winds are expected on Wednesday. 3) Increasing chances for thunderstorms are favored by Friday into the weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Gusty west winds are expected to develop on Wednesday behind the passage of a cold front. The NBM probability of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph ranges between 50 and 80 percent across NE Montana from Wednesday morning into the late afternoon before gradually decreasing. Thus, have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. Zonal flow is expected over the region in the next few days before 500mb heights carve out ridging Friday and Saturday. This will lead to an overall warm weather pattern with dry weather over the next couple of days. By late Friday and into the weekend unsettled conditions are expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing in probability as the ridge axis slides east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS: Given the post-frontal environment, the forecast was trended above the NBM for winds on Wednesday with confidence remaining high on a windy day across the region. Fire weather concerns will also be on the increase, with the gusty winds and dropping humidity behind the front. Fuel conditions and low to moderate fire danger will keep the fire concerns in check for the most part. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0355Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: Skies are clear to partly cloudy tonight. There is an outside chance for a thunderstorm at KGDV from 07 to 12Z, but this value is currently too low to put in the TAFs even as a Prob30. Clear to partly cloudy skies are then expected through Wednesday and into the evening. LLWS: Low level wind shear may be an issue at times now through 12Z this morning. WIND: SW and light tonight. Veering to the West around sunrise and increasing to 20 to 25 kts through Wednesday afternoon. Then calming to less than 10 kts after sundown. EQUIPMENT: The METAR for KSDY is missing, thus AMD NOT SKED. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow