


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
420 FXUS65 KGGW 130818 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 218 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Hot and dry conditions continue today. 2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms start tonight in the north and become widespread across the region Monday night and continues through at least Tuesday night. 3) Cooler temperatures start in the north on Monday and spread to the entire area on Tuesday and Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Hot and dry weather will prevail over NE Montana today. Meanwhile, models and ensembles wants to bring a back door cold front at least part way through the forecast area in the late afternoon and early evening with gusty NE winds mainly north of the Missouri River this evening and a chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the Missouri River tonight. Not sure how much of these NE winds will reach Fort Peck Lake this evening. Will hold off on a Lake Wind Advisory for now. This frontal boundary will be quasi-stationary over the forecast area for most of the day on Monday. This will result in highs in the 80s north and 90s south. Models and ensembles have differences on where the front will be stationary Monday morning and when and how quickly it moves south as a cold front Monday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough approaches the area from the west. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain north of the Missouri River during the day on Monday but will spread to the entire region and become likely Monday night as the cold front moves to the south. The upper trough will keep frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms over the area on Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday with cooler than normal temperatures for mid July. The highest QPF is expected Monday night through Tuesday night. Portions of NE Montana could see precipitation amounts range between 0.25" and 0.50" during this period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high that hot and dry conditions will continue today. Confidence is low on temperatures on Monday due to the uncertainty of the location of the frontal boundary. Confidence is high on the cool and wet weather that starts Monday night and continues until Tuesday night or Wednesday. While NBM was largely followed, a blend with NBM 90 was used for winds this evening and again Monday night as models frequently underforecast winds behind a cold front. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0820Z on July 13, 2025 FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies today and a mix of mid and high clouds tonight. KGGW and KOLF could have an isolated shower or thunderstorm late tonight. Otherwise, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain north of the TAF sites tonight. WINDS: Light and variable this morning becoming west to SW 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Around 00z, winds will veer to the north and NE and increase to 10 to 20 knots at KGGW and KOLF, and 10 to 15 knots at KSDY. Meanwhile, winds will veer to the west and NW at KGDV at 10 to 15 knots. NE winds will diminish to 5 to 10 knots after 06z at KGGW, KOLF and KSDY and become light and variable at KGDV. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow