502
FXUS65 KGGW 220814
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
214 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
 - Slow warm up to the 80s for highs by mid week.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Only thing of note is a weak and dry cold front passing through
the area Sunday night through Monday morning which will bring a
few clouds and a slight increase in the winds, but the cold air
advection will only delay our warming trend by maybe a day and not
really bring a drop in high temperatures for Monday.

By Tuesday a strong ridge over the front range will generate a
chinook, move in, and bump our temperatures as much as 15 to 20
degrees above season normal by Wednesday. By Thursday the ridge
begins to shift east as a Pacific Northwest trough moves onshore.
At this time it looks to be pretty dry with little to nothing in
the way of rainfall, however cool air advection behind the trough
may bring our temperatures back closer to seasonal average by next
weekend.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
High confidence in warming trend.

Confidence begins to break down around Wednesday night into
Friday. A back and forth battle between two airmasses the PCNW
trough and the hot Desert SW air occurs which changes positioning
of the fronts from ensemble to ensemble as they pass by.

By Saturday confidence is below average as the progressive zonal
pattern has troughs and ridges completely out of phase with each
other in the ensembles.

-Bernhart/GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED: 0700Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions and fair skies most of today, but mid
level cloud cover is expected to increase by tonight.

WIND: Light and variable this morning. S at 10 to 15 kts this
afternoon. Becoming light again and SW tonight.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow