617
FXUS63 KGID 252327
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A little breezy Thursday from southerly winds 10-15 MPH
  gusting as high as 20-25 MPH.

- Highs through SUN will mainly stay in the low to mid 80s.

- A dry forecast for the next 7 days. The chance for
  precipitation remains below 5% areawide.

- A cold front dipping into the region MON night may temporarily
  drop temps TUES (upper 60s to low 70s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tonight...

Quiet weather will finish out the day today as high pressure
makes itself comfortable across the broad plains and much of the
central U.S. Highs will climb back up into the upper 70s to
lower 80s with overnight temperatures falling as low as the mid
40s to lower 50s. A few cirrus clouds may ride the northerly jet
aloft this evening as an amplified ridge stretching up into
western Canada crosses over into the Central and Great Plains.
General subsidence (mid and upper level sinking), typically
found underneath the ridge, will dampen any precipitation
chance. Winds will stay light and variable through the night.

Thursday through Sunday...

A stronger surface pressure gradient, caused by a weak surface
low creeping in from the eastern side of the Wyoming rockies,
will introduce 10-15 MPH southerly winds with gusts as high as
20 MPH to the area Thursday. It is possible to even see isolated
gusts as high as 25 MPH in our north and west counties (up
towards Dawson and Valley counties). This may become the
breeziest day until Monday when a cold font (looking more
probable) may break up the southerly established flow. Fire
weather concerns continue to stay marginal for Thursday as the
minimum relative humidity is forecast to drop to 30-40% in the
day, driest to the north and west (not low enough for fire
weather concern).

Clear skies under weak steering flow will allow temperatures to
build into the low to mid 80s, a few degrees warmer from
Wednesday. This gradual warming will maintain through the
weekend with a majority of the daily highs staying in this
temperature range (upper 70s to mid 80s). Through the weekend,
blocked upper level flow from a cutoff low centered over the
Central Mississippi River Basin (MO/AR/TN/MS/KY), will keep
things quiet in Central NE/KS. A few clouds may spill into our
southern and eastern edges Friday from the outflow of the now
Hurricane Helene. The area will remain dry with now little
influence of the low`s position as it has continued to shift
eastward with the consecutive forecast trend.

Monday and Tuesday...

A cold front monday night may flip the scrip up from the
otherwise peaceful weather system pattern. Precipitation chances
at this time remain limited (<5%) due to the lack of
consistency and low forecast confidence. An upper level trough
will dig southward starting Monday, propelling the cold front
south and east. A temperature decrease will be the most
substantial effect as highs are expected to fall from the upper
70s to low 80s down to the upper 60s to low 70s for Tuesday. A
swath of dry air will accompany behind the front as dry
continental air from Canada sinks down south, dropping the
regional moisture content. Gusty winds could play a factor in
highlighting near critical fire weather concerns past Tuesday.
Confidence of impact remains low as this event is 6 days out.
The forecast of the cold front is less of an if question and
more of a when, where and what will the impact be.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period and SKC. Lgt and vrbl winds tonight will
give way to steady Srly breeze by mid to late AM, with some
modest gusts to around 17kt for the aftn. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies