567
FXUS63 KGID 171745
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and warm today. Thunderstorms arrive from the west
  tonight. Western areas could see marginally severe winds
  (50-60 MPH) as storms move into the area.

- Lingering storms on Wednesday morning, with possible
  redevelopment in the afternoon. A few of the potential
  afternoon storms could be strong to marginally severe.

- Low rain/t-storm chances (10-30%) return for Friday, and
  become likely (60-70% chance) late Friday night through
  Saturday night.

- Cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track across the
area early this morning. This activity should exit the area to
the east by 8-9am, with dry conditions expected for the rest of
the daytime. South winds will continue to increase through the
afternoon, with peak wind gusts over 40 MPH expected for the
northwestern half of the area.

This afternoon, convection is expected to initially develop over
CO/WY in response to the deep trough ejecting through the
region. Models continue to indicate this quickly organizing into
a eastward line of storms, likely producing severe winds. CAMs
continue to indicate that storms will be on a weakening trend as
they approach central KS/NE in the 9pm-midnight timeframe. The
00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities show a 50% chance for severe
wind gusts over the Nebraska panhandle, but less than a 10%
chance as they move east of North Platte. That being said, there
is still some potential for some spotty strong to marginally
severe wind gusts in western areas as storms arrive.

This line of showers/storms then continues across the area,
potentially lingering in eastern areas past sunrise. Remnant
outflow could then could then provide a focus for a few
thunderstorms to redevelop Wednesday afternoon. If these
develop, the convective environment (MLCAPE ~2000j/kg and 0-6km
shear 20-35kts) would support a few strong to severe storms.

Thursday has continued to trend drier, with the latest NBM
completely dry for the local area. The next system could bring
us low chances for rain/t-storms as early as Friday
afternoon/evening, but the most favorable timeframe will be as
the main low moves through the area Saturday through Saturday
night. Rain chances then gradually decrease Sunday through
Monday as the system pushes northeastward and out of the area. Total
QPF on the 00Z suite has remained pretty consistent. Over the
next 7 days, the global "super" ensemble (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) shows
a 50-80% chance for 1.00" or more of rain.

Medium-range ensembles then continue to favor cooler-than-normal
temperatures next week. Low temperatures in the 40s are likely
for at least northwestern parts of the area many days next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

For the rest of this afternoon, expecting little in the way of
cloud cover, and continued gusty southerly winds. Gusts around
30-35 MPH are not out of the question this afternoon. Winds
diminish a touch this evening, but remain gusty out of the SSE.
Main concern turns to mid-later evening into the overnight
hours, as a line of showers/storms passes from west to east
across the forecast area. At this time, the timing for the best
chances at the terminal areas is roughly in the 06-10Z time
frame...will be able to better refine that as activity develops
out west and moves east early this evening. Kept a VCSH mention
going through the early morning hours...confidence in just how
much activity lingers is not high at this point...with the rest
of this period expected to be dry. Kept this period VFR, but if
sub-VFR conditions were to develop, it`d likely be in that time
frame when precipitation is moving through/just
after...confidence not high to drop it below VFR at this point.
Gusty southerly winds look to redevelop mid-late morning
tomorrow.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP