520
FXUS63 KGID 271131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures (mostly 80s) and dry conditions
  through the weekend with a brief cool down to near normal
  (upper 60s and lower 70s) next Tuesday.

- Dry fuels and low afternoon relative humidity values across
  the region are resulting in an increasing fire weather threat,
  with the addition of strong north winds Monday afternoon
  likely resulting in near-critical fire weather concerns across
  at least parts of the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Another quiet night across the region with just a few high
clouds streaming across the local area visible on satellite. As
was done yesterday, continued to hedge high temperatures on the
warm side of guidance the next couple of days as relatively low
dew points and good mixing should allow temperatures to
continue to overachieve as high pressure aloft remains in
control of the local weather pattern.

A quick passing upper level trough and surface cold front is
expected to bring breezy/strong north winds across the area on
Monday, followed by a brief cool down to near climatological
norms for Tuesday afternoon. Thanks to winds potentially gusting
as high as 40 MPH Monday afternoon, expect to see elevated if
not near critical fire weather concerns across the local area as
fuels have officially cured for the season and relative
humidity values will fall below 30 percent across much of the
local area. Depending on the timing of the surface front and the
associated strong north winds in its wake, how widespread
fire weather concerns will ultimately be is still in question,
but for the time being model consensus focuses the worst
conditions near and north of interstate 80.

Thereafter, cooler weather will fill in behind the cold front
for Tuesday, although temperatures will still be fairly near
seasonable norms...before rapidly climbing back above normal by
Wednesday. As the upper level flow then becomes more zonal for
the remainder of the period, continued warm temperatures (70s)
will continue through the end of next week and likely beyond,
which will still be solidly above the rapidly falling
climatology for this time of year. While the flow will be more
zonal, there are no notable disturbances to speak of and surface
moisture will be lacking, likely resulting in dry weather
continuing through the first full week of October. Latest
ensemble guidance not indicating much in the way of precip
chances returning until around the 10th of October, and even
that looks pretty iffy at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with
just a few passing high clouds, good visibilities and generally
light winds less than 12 KTS.

Early this morning...a few cirrus clouds can be seen on
satellite streaming across the local area from the west. Off and
on high clouds are expected to continue to move across the
local area through the afternoon hours with generally light
winds this morning becoming northeasterly around 10 KTS later
today as a weak surface trough tracks pushes east across south
central Nebraska.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi