969
FXUS65 KGJT 042315
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
515 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds diminish this afternoon and evening giving way to clear
  skies overnight. Temperatures start to warmup tomorrow as high
  pressure builds in.

- Some of the hottest temperatures are expected late week with
  highs running 10-15 degrees above normal and triple digits
  likely for the lower desert valleys.

- Chances of mountain showers and storms will return for the
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Some clouds linger over the higher terrain this afternoon but
with high pressure slowly moving in, clearing skies remain the
rule heading into the evening hours and overnight. Some breezy
conditions are mixing down with gusts of 20 to 30 mph being
common but these too shall end heading into the evening hours.

Tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in and will cause
high temperatures to start increasing. Highs will jump by about
5 degrees and this trend of increasing temps will continue into
the long term period. Look for the usual afternoon breezes of
15 to occasionally 20 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

High pressure remains in control Thursday as a closed low continues
to spin off the Mexican coast at the start of the long term period.
This high pressure will be the cause for the hot temperatures
towards the end of the week heading into the weekend. Triple digit
high temps remain in the forecast from the Grand Valley to Moab and
much of southeastern Utah. Probabilities of this occurring remain
near 100% for southeast Utah with 80% chances for the Grand Valley.
It`s gonna be hot since seasonal values are usually in the mid to
upper 80s. Outside of the heat, some convection does look to return
to the area heading into the weekend as some moisture increases are
noted.

Starting Friday, PWATs are forecast to increase some and despite a
ridge axis staying over much of the western states, weak
disturbances and daytime heating will allow some showers and storms
to form in the afternoon and evening. Favored areas will be the
higher terrain and with such dry lower levels, the main concern will
be some gusty outflow winds. This trend of afternoon and evening
convection continues into the weekend. The closed low off the Mexico
Coast starts moving to the northeast Saturday while a deep trough
approaches the West Coast. This will cause the ridge axis to shift
to our east. Even so, another round of convection is expected
Saturday afternoon and yet another round on Sunday. This Sunday
convection could be more widespread and intense (maybe) as the
trough and a surface front will be providing additional dynamic
support. Monday may also be a bit more active as the upper level
trough pushes through and provides the support. If you plan on
hiking in the higher terrain this weekend, set out early to
avoid any convection.

Hot temperatures continue Saturday before dropping about 5 degrees
Sunday and again Monday thanks to increased cloud cover and the
winds becoming more northwesterly allowing somewhat cooler temps to
move in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions and light terrain-driven winds are expected
through the taf period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

High pressure building overhead through the end of the week will
result in an unseasonably warm period across the Western Slope.
Simultaneously, as those temperatures rise, so will the rate of
snowmelt across our high terrain. Even though low to mid elevations
have already melted out, there`s still an abnormally high amount of
snow left over basins generally at and above 11,000 ft. As a result,
we`ll see creeks, streams and major tributaries along the Upper
Colorado River Basin rise. Seasonal peak flows are expected over the
next 10 days, with the Upper Gunnison, Upper Yampa and Colorado
Headwaters basins potentially peaking this weekend. Current
guidance oscillates diurnal peaks cresting the Action Stage for
portions of Gore Creek and Eagle River in Eagle County and the
Elk River in Routt County Colorado. We will continue to monitor
these evolving forecasts to see if any Flood products are
warranted. But for now, we just want to pass on the message:

As scorching temperatures lure folks to the water, please
remember the potential hazards associated with high flows during
the snowmelt season. Fast flows are not just dangerous for
those choosing to float the rivers. In addition, high diurnal
swings may drastically change the depth and flow for normally
small creeks and streams. Swift currents and cold water
temperatures can catch you off guard, so please be vigilant with
current conditions and look for forecast updates when
recreating or working near the water`s edge.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW