Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
766 FXUS65 KGJT 221044 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 444 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm activity will be reduced today compared to Thursday and Friday, mainly impacting higher terrain. The potential for excessive rainfall or severe storms is low. - Temperatures return to near normal levels today, climbing to between 5 and 10 degrees above normal from Sunday through the end of next week. - Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day from Sunday to Friday with higher terrain favored. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered for all but Thursday when numerous storms are expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 444 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Subsidence in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough which moved over the forecast area last evening brought clearing skies to the north. However, deep moisture to the south and weak jet divergence sustained isolated showers and a thunderstorm near the Four Corners early this morning. A more zonal flow aloft has shifted the subtropical moisture plume to just south of the CO/NM state line. For today, HREF guidance indicated ample moisture remains with precipitable water (PW) levels near an inch across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Early sunshine working on the deep residual moisture is forecast to yield SBCAPE values of 1000 to 1300 J/Kg today. HREF and model soundings indicated the highest CAPE will be realized between 16Z and 20Z before mixing transfers drier air aloft into the lower elevations. This suggests storms will fire early, becoming less vigorous during the latter part of the afternoon. Enough shear remains for multicellular storms early on, but not enough for supercells. As the day progresses, shear decreases and storms will become shorter lived as downdrafts increasingly interfere with storm updrafts. Given PW levels mentioned previously, heavy rain is possible with stronger cells, though the potential for flooding is low due to the low potential for long lived organized storms. Showers/thunderstorms are expected to diminish early this evening as diurnal cooling and a lack of upward forcing allow the atmosphere to stabilize. Fewer showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday as the region continues to dry under a shallow transitory ridge. Temperatures should return to near normal today as early sunshine and reduced storm coverage allows for better solar insolation. By Sunday, temperatures jump by close to 5 degrees as drying continues. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 444 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 With high pressure to the south and troughing to the north, eastern Utah and Western Colorado will stay under a dry zonal flow aloft through the coming week, but residual moisture remains trapped near the surface with dewpoints generally in the 40`s across the region with light winds. This will lead to skies clearing out each night allowing diurnal heating the following day to charge the atmosphere the with cumulus build-ups in the late morning into the early afternoon turning into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain through the afternoon into the early evening before the clouds evaporate under subsidence overnight and the cycle repeats. Thew ensembles suggest the high building into a ridge up the Rocky Mountains through mid week with another deep trough descending into the Pacific Northwest late in the week. Some of the models and guidance are hinting that another band of tropical moisture that is just moving into northern Mexico off the Gulf of Mexico today will work its way around the high or sneak under it Wednesday into Thursday to bring another surge of moisture generating widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Wednesday afternoon favoring the higher terrain that will linger overnight, spinning up into widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Showers will linger overnight in the mountains becoming widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again Friday afternoon. Confidence is low due to the wide dispersion in the solutions on any specifics in the forecast beyond widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon favoring the higher terrain with some days seeing more activity and others less. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast as we see how the high pressure to the south develops. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm will continue along the CO/NM Border for the next few hours before coming to an end. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions with light winds through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain after 18Z lasting until about 02Z Sunday. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT