Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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976 FXUS63 KGLD 051107 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 507 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Relatively dry Wednesday and Thursday with only a slight chance for storms Thursday night. Temperatures will be hot today with highs in the 90`s. - A return to a more active weather pattern Friday night through Monday night as weather systems move off the Colorado front range and into the Tri-State area each afternoon through overnight hours. - Hot with highs in the 90s Friday then cooling closer to normal highs for early June in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 131 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The short term period is forecast to be relatively warm and benign with ridging trying to advance into the area. With the ridge`s influence, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low 90`s today while some drier air blows in from the west. Critical fire weather conditions may briefly be hit in counties that border the Colorado border, but recent green up makes explosive fire growth unlikely. For tonight, clear skies are forecast to continue, but a trough axis swinging through the Great Lakes is forecast to help push the lower pressure further south and potentially bring in some colder air. It won`t make much of a difference tonight with temperatures already cooling to near dewpoint with clear skies and light winds. For tomorrow high temperatures though, closer to average highs around the mid 80`s are forecast with the slightly cooler air mass overhead. Will need to watch for a few storms generally south of I- 70 as some moisture tries to return to the area with the low level flow shifting to out of the southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Long range guidance continues to indicate a somewhat more active pattern this weekend into early next week. Synoptic subsidence on the western periphery of an amplifying upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will aid in the development of a low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley/Deep South -- and an influx of rich low-level moisture from the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southern and Central Plains -- where a synoptic regime characterized by modest WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, a regime in which [1] small amplitude waves on the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies may aid/enhance diurnal convective development on the lee slopes of the central/northern Rockies and [2] a large reservoir of instability (increasing with eastern and southern extent) will strongly support upscale convective growth and downstream propagation over portions of the Central and Southern Plains. In other words, a pattern supportive of long-lived mesoscale convective systems. Episodic convection and severe weather are possible. At this range, in this pattern, little more can be ascertained with confidence. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 505 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. There is a very low chance (<10%) that some low stratus (1000ft ceiling or less) or fog will move into KGLD around 13-15Z. Otherwise, near surface winds will be roughly from the west through the day with gusts to around 20kts. Wind will then lower to 8 kts or less this evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...BV AVIATION...KAK