843
FXUS63 KGLD 170912
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
312 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will approach or exceed 100 degrees in many areas
  once again on Monday. Strong south winds will affect the
  majority of the area Monday afternoon. Sustained winds at 30
  to 40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph may create hazardous travel
  conditions, especially on west-east routes, such as I-70,
  where cross winds will be strongest. Reductions in visibility
  associated with blowing dust may exacerbate hazardous travel
  conditions.

- Scattered thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
  area during the afternoon hours on both Monday and Tuesday.
  Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds are possible, should storms develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny,
expect for mostly sunny skies across central portions of the
CWA. This is where a meandering frontal boundary resides, with
cumulus starting to pop up along it. Temperatures as of 100 PM
MDT are ranging in the 80s/90s north of boundary into Nebraska.
south of the boundary, 90s. For winds, south of the boundary,
S/SE flow persists with gusts into the 20-25 mph range at times.
Along the boundary, variable winds at times and to the north,
E/NE flow persists.

Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the
potential for strong to severe storms over portions of the area
during the afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday. Some
blowing dust is possible Monday afternoon. Increased chances for
rw/trw Tuesday/Tuesday evening could bring about heavy
rainfall/flooding concerns in addition to the threats from
severe storms(wind, hail, etc).

For the remainder of the afternoon hrs into this evening, the
wx threat will focus on where the aforementioned boundary
resides. SPC has increased the Marginal risk in areas
along/north of Highway 36 in NE/KS due to increased
instability/moisture with a more easterly fetch. Between the
HRRR, RAP and NamNest, the NamNest is the most aggressive with
storm potential starting along and north of the front/boundary
around 00z Monday, lifting north and east through 06z. HRRR/RAP
only shows a few isolated cells that amount to very little.
There is decent shear along/ahead of the front thanks to the
easterly flow. Soundings from the HRRR around 21z-22z do show
inverted-v profile and DCape around 1700-1800 j/kg, and SBCape
around 1100-1200j/kg. So if a storm could initiate, it could
grow fairly quickly with potentially all threat mode on the
table, especially damaging winds. With the uncertainty of
formation/coverage, plan on keeping close to previous forecast
(20- 30% pops) for now. The later evening hours do show the
potential for isolated rw/trw potential, so will trend a 20 pop
through the CWA into Monday morning.

Going into Monday, a similar situation to today. Front will
remain the focus for any strong to severe storms. Surface low on
the western side of the front in Colorado will focus increased
southerly flow to areas across NE/KS. Models are hinting at
40-50 mph gust potential, especially in KS. Numbers stay low
enough not to warrant a high wind watch, but need to be
monitored for next forecast issuance. Also, western portions of
Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties into Yuma county in Colorado will
be on the low end for RH during the afternoon hrs. Areal
coverage combined with winds meeting criteria warrants a fire wx
watch(17z Mon-02z Tue) at this time. Local guidance is close to
having patchy blowing dust in the southwest, so have kept a
mention in but decreased coverage from previous forecast.

The rest of the weather concerns will be on the threat for
storms. CAMs are showing best chance from 00z Tuesday onward
with the front lifting into northern tier CWA zones. This will
bring another round of hot conditions, drying lower levels out.
Model soundings show increased DCape values around 2000-2200j/kg
in the 00z Tuesday timeframe, with SBCape values around
1200j/kg. Again like today, the best CAM showing this activity
potential, the NamNest, keeps best chances along/north of the
front, Highway 36 and north. Activity clears quicker than
tonight, allowing for coverage to end by 06z Tuesday.

Both today and Monday will also have high PW values of an inch
plus, mainly in KS/NE, allowing for chances for heavy rainfall
and flooding concerns.

On Tuesday, the low associated with the front is pushed south
due to a nosing ridge from the northern Rockies. This is going
to push the front back south and east as well with it becoming
nearly stationary through the evening hours. This boundary will
interact with a passing 500mb shortwave creating rw/trw chances.
With a persistent feed of moisture into the front area, pops
have increased into the 60-80% range for the evening and
overnight hours. Highest chances east near the front. Excessive
rain along with another chance for strong to severe storms
occurs. This will be focused in the east where the front will
reside. Wind, hail threats will be on tap, along with chances
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns. As with the past
couple days, precip chances do not let up going into the
midweek timeframe.

For temps, another hot day expected on Monday as highs will
range in the upper 90s to low 100s. Going into Tuesday, with a
front over the area, a wider range for highs is expected with
lower 80s in the northwest into the mid 90s in the east-
southeast. Overnight lows tonight will range from the 60s west
of Highway 25, through the lower to mid 70s along and east of
Highway 25. For Monday night, similar to tonight`s numbers, but
some upper 50s may be seen in portions of northeast Colorado.
Going into Tuesday night, cooler with mainly 50s expected. Some
locales east of Highway 25/south of Highway 24 will range into
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms daily through the weekend as we remained stuck in
southwest flow aloft for much of the week. An upper high strengthens
along the Mid-Atlantic Coast while another area of high pressure
develops over Texas towards the Ohio Valley, the upper trough along
the West Coast will continue to struggle to move east due to the
blocking high until the weekend. The trough will begin to slide east
over the Northern to Central Plains Saturday while high pressure
remains over the Southern CONUS. A warm front will sit over the far
northern portions of the Tri-State area on Thursday as weak
shortwaves continue to move over the region and strengthen a
lee surface trough over the Colorado Plains. The best time frame
for any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and
evening hours through Saturday with low confidence (less than
20%) for showers and storms on Sunday.

Thursday will begin a warming trend with highs in the 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s. Friday and Saturday continue to warm back
up with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90s. Overnight lows
on Friday could be in the 60s to lower 70s while Saturday night lows
are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to 60s. Highs on Sunday are
currently forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows falling into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

GLD: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF
period. A period of LLWS associated with a strong southerly LLJ
(50-60 knot) is expected overnight. At the surface, SE winds at
10-20 knots will veer to the S and increase to 20-35 knots
overnight. Winds will veer to the SW and decrease to 15-25
knots for a period mid-late Monday morning.. then back to the S
and increase to 25-40 knots during the afternoon.. as a
developing lee cyclone tracks northeastward into northeast CO.

MCK: Severe convection invof the MCK terminal weakened and
dissipated ~0245 UTC. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail
through the TAF period. A period of LLWS associated with a
strong southerly LLJ (~50 knot) is expected overnight. At the
surface, SE winds at 10-20 knots will veer to the S and
increase to 20-30 knots a few hours after sunrise.. further
increasing to 25-40 knots Monday afternoon.. as a developing
lee cyclone tracks northeastward into northeast CO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for northeast
Colorado from 11 am to 7 pm. Humidity will drop into the 10-15%
range as winds during the afternoon will increase from the south
towards 45 mph. Best criteria will be hit in western portions
of the counties.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     COZ090>092.
     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ253-254.
NE...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...BV
FIRE WEATHER...JN