405
FXUS63 KGLD 160928
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
328 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees are expected
  across the majority of the Tri-State area today and tomorrow.
  Heat indices approaching 105 degrees are possible along and
  east of Highway 283 today.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening. Confidence is low in whether or not
  storms will develop, however if they do large hail and
  damaging winds will be possible. There is also a risk for a
  tornado or two if storms develop along a cold front from
  northern Yuma County eastward along the Kansas and Nebraska
  border area, including southwest Nebraska.

- Similar to today, there is a marginal risk for severe
  thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence remains
  low on whether or not they will develop. However, conditions
  remain favorable for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado
  or two should storms form.

- Monday will be windy to very windy during the afternoon and
  evening hours. South winds gusting 40 and up to 60 mph will be
  possible. Areas of blowing dust may develop due to the strong
  winds.

- Tuesday there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in
  the afternoon and evening. Confidence is higher that storms
  will develop. In addition to the severe risk, heavy rainfall
  and flash flooding will become a concern Tuesday night with
  repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Widely scattered thunderstorms continue through the early
morning hours today, remnants of earlier convection in Colorado
that is being sustained on the nose of a 40-45kt low level jet.
This activity should wane by sunrise.

Today, frontal boundary will sink into the area this morning,
stall out around Interstate 70, then slowly lift north as a warm
front this afternoon. Temperatures south of the front will
easily reach the upper 90s to lower 100s, with low to mid 90s to
the north. The front will also potentially serve as a focus for
convective initiation this afternoon, with more isolated storm
development possible south of the front. CAMs are split on
whether or not initiation will occur, with the HRRR showing
nothing but the NAMnest showing scattered storms, so confidence
is rather low. However, any storm that develops near the front
could potentially be a supercell, with easterly low level winds
on the immediate cool side resulting in an environment
characterized by moderate instability and deep layer shear of
40-50 kts. This area would be basically along and north of
Highway 36, including northern Yuma County eastward into
southwest Nebraska, between 21z and 03z. Further south, the deep
layer shear will initially be weaker, around 25 kts, but does
increase during the late afternoon to early evening to around 40
kts, so cannot rule out an isolated severe storm even in the
remainder of the area. Potential hazards along and north of the
front include a brief tornado, large hail and damaging winds,
while south of the front they will be mainly a marginal wind
and hail threat. Once again, this is only if storms actually
manage to develop. Even the NAMnest has storms moving out to the
north by 03z, so the window will be short.

On Monday, southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of an upper
low approaching the northern Rockies. The surface front will get
sheared out parallel to the upper flow by the afternoon from
northeast Colorado into western Nebraska, with a surface low
near the Tri- border area. As the surface low deepens the
pressure gradient will result in windy to very windy conditions
across the area during the afternoon and evening. Some of the
models suggesting wind gusts approaching high wind criteria of
up to 60 mph during the afternoon and early evening. In
addition, the gusty winds may produce areas of blowing dust with
favorable low level lapse rates. Temperatures will top out in
the upper 90s to lower 100s once again. Precipitation chances
remain low confidence, with the CAMs once again in poor
agreement on whether or not convective initation will occur.
Upper forcing is weak, with only a hint of a perturbation in the
flow. At the surface, the cold front will extend northeast from
the surface low, potentially in the northwest corner of the
forecast area, with a diffuse dry line trailing south along/just
west of the Kansas and Colorado border area. These surface
features are what the models that do initiate convection are
keying on for development. Similar to today, instability/shear
parameters will be most favorable along and north of the front,
but slightly less favorable to the south, and least favorable
west of the dry line/south of the front. Given all of the
uncertainty, could only justify slight chance pops at this time.
Storms, if they develop, should lift quickly into Nebraska by
mid evening.

Tuesday, southwest flow aloft continues. The surface front does
make progress and the models show it roughly from a Norton to
Tribune line in northwest Kansas by the afternoon. There is a
stronger shortwave trough that moves across the area, with
convective initiation looking more likely along the front.
Tuesday night, models producing copious rainfall across eastern
and southern areas, likely due to training as the front makes
only slow progress southward since it is still parallel to the
upper flow. In addition to the marginal severe risk Tuesday
afternoon with initial storms, flooding may become a bigger
concern as we get into Tuesday night. High temperatures will be
in the 70s and 80s north of the front and lower 90s south, with
lows Tuesday night in the 50s and 60s, perhaps even some upper
40s in Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms daily for the middle to latter part of the week. As an
upper high strengthens along the Mid-Atlantic Coast, the upper low
will struggle to move east across the Northwest CONUS. The cold
front from Tuesday is expected to lift north as a warm front
Wednesday where it will sit over the far northern portions of the
area on Thursday as weak shortwaves continue to move over the region
and strengthen a lee trough over the Colorado Plains. The best
time frame for any showers and storms will be during the
afternoon and evening hours Wednesday through Saturday, with
potential for showers and storms throughout the day Wednesday.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be quite comfortable with highs in
the upper 60s to upper 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs in the 80s and overnight
lows in the 60s. Friday and Saturday continue to warm back up with
highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90s. Overnight lows on
Friday could be in the 60s to lower 70s while Saturday night lows
are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Aside
from cirrus associated with decaying convection /convective
remnants/ this evening, clear skies will otherwise prevail.
Aside from gusty/erratic winds (~15G25KT) associated with
lingering convective outflow this evening, winds will otherwise
remain light/variable through sunrise.. shifting to the south
at 10-15 knots late Sunday morning and increasing to 15-20 knots
Sunday afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Aside
from cirrus associated with decaying convection /convective
remnants/ this evening, clear skies will otherwise prevail.
Aside from gusty/erratic winds (~15G25KT) associated with
lingering convective outflow this evening, winds will otherwise
remain light/variable through early Sunday afternoon.. shifting
to the south and increasing to 15-25 knots during the mid-late
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Near-record to record high temperatures are expected across
portions of the area on Sunday June 16. High temperature records
for the date (June 16) are listed below.

Location        Record (F)

Goodland KS     101 in 2021+
McCook NE       107 in 1946
Hill City KS    112 in 1946
Burlington CO   103 in 1952
Colby KS        107 in 1946
Tribune KS      103 in 1946
Yuma CO          98 in 1995

A (+) denotes a record set on multiple years.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...BV
CLIMATE...JN