856
FXUS63 KGLD 200124
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
724 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers/thunderstorms continues overnight, mainly
  across the northwest 1/2 of the area.

- Patchy dense fog is also possible across the area overnight.

- Dry and warmer Thursday.

- Hot with highs in the 90s Friday through Sunday then 90s to
  low 100s Monday through Wednesday.

- Dangerous heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees east of
  Highway 25 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Moisture advection is ongoing as SE winds will continue to
stream moist air into the area. Guidance over the past several
runs shows fog development mainly along and south of I-70
starting mid evening and continuing through at least mid
morning. HRRR is the most aggressive with the fog showing a
fairly large area seeing dense fog; I`m however a little
skeptical on this as winds will remain around 10-15 mph through
the night so think this will help keep fog from becoming to
thick. For this reason, I am foregoing any fog highlights at
this time. There continues to be 20-50% chance of showers and
perhaps isolated storms moving across the area with isentropic
lift being the main factor. The best chance for seeing any
rainfall will be along and north of I-70, where a tenth or two
of measurable precipitation looks to occur.

As winds become more more southerly throughout the day tomorrow
some smoke from a large wildfire west of Roswell, New Mexico
may look to move across western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Have not introduced haze into
the forecast at this time as would like to see some run to run
consistency but have increased sky coverage a bit to account for
this. At this time any smoke looks to remain elevated just
creating a haze in the sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight...latest model guidance in general agreement that the
combination of 850-500mb relative humidity and higher pops should
remain focused along and west of Highway 27 through midnight before
continuing to the northwest while weakening. Given the very poor
performance of much of the guidance the past 24 hours, I`m rather
pessimistic in the precipitation forecast. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Cant rule out some
fog in spots and next shift may need to update the forecast based on
latest data.

Thursday-Thursday night...drier air in the 850-500mb layer quickly
overtakes the area by mid to late morning, ending any precipitation
chances. Southerly winds strengthen during the day with gusts of 30
to 40 mph, highest west of Highway 25. Breezy winds continue
overnight, mainly west of Highway 27. High temperatures warm back up
into the 85 to 90 degree range with low temperatures in the
60s.

Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an upper
trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast states.
Unfortunately, moisture from Mexico is skirted to the south of the
area. There is a bit of moisture in the 700-500mb layer that moves
off the Colorado front range and into the northwest 1/4 of the
forecast area during the afternoon and evening, supporting 20%-30%
chances for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to middle 90s with low temperatures
in the lower 60s to middle 70s. It will continue to be windy with
southerly winds gusting to 40 mph during the day, slowly decreasing
overnight.

Saturday-Saturday night...500mb flow shifts from southwest flow
aloft to zonal with troughing to our north and an elongated ridge to
our south. Presently, dry weather is forecast. There could be a
few thunderstorms flirting with the northwest and western
corner of the forecast area in the afternoon/evening. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to middle 90s
with low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The area will be under west-northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge axis
crosses the Rockies at the close of the weekend with high pressure
centered over the southern CONUS. Low pressure moving across
Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba will work to (briefly) flatten the
ridge, promoting more of a zonal flow, and shortwaves moving through
will keep slight chance afternoon-evening PoPs, generally around 15-
20%. Towards the latter part of the long term period, ridging again
amplifies upstream as an upper low meanders along the coast of
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

For temperatures, the warming trend continues with low-mid 90s
Sunday followed by return of near-triple digit to triple digit heat
by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be
in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

MVFR ceilings are currently ongoing at KGLD along with near
MVFR ceilings at KMCK. Soundings and nearly all guidance
strongly suggest that ceilings will continue to decrease
through the period with IFR to LIFR stratus becoming the main
aviation concern through mid morning. Guidance also does show
some patchy dense fog south of the Interstate; it is possible
that it may impact the KGLD terminal but should be transient in
nature and short lived so have included VCFG for the period
where this is currently favored. More hit and miss showers may
occur overnight so will continue the VCSH. VFR conditions look
to return mid morning as drier air moves into the area again;
however wind gusts of 30-35 knots look likely during the day
Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Trigg