Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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782 FXUS63 KGLD 160737 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 137 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal daytime temperatures continue through Friday. | - Weather pattern becomes more favorable for rainfall, especially Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night (40%-70% pops Tuesday night) with 50% chances for rainfall Friday night. - Windy conditions expected Monday through Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Intense area of winds, apparently due to weak inversion interacting with increasing low level jet seems focused around the Goodland area, where temperatures remain just warm enough to allow deeper mixing and aided by decaying showers. This jet is expected to shift east and north and decrease sharply in the next 2 hours. Gusts up to 69 mph were observed at the KGLD airport, with the strongest winds per velocity data impinging on the area right now. Have extended warning for Sherman county until 06Z, as winds have not materialized in the other parts of the warning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Tonight...a weather system moves across the area from southeast Colorado. Sufficient mid level moisture (700-500mb) and some elevated instability support 20% chances for showers and thunderstorms across all but Sheridan and Gove counties, mainly up through midnight. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Monday-Monday night...a large deep upper level low pressure area over central California in the morning is forecast to move into southeast Idaho/northeast Nevada by 12z Tuesday, similar to forecasts the past few days. Another weather system moves across the area from the southwest, supporting 20% chances for showers and thunderstorms from late morning through the overnight hours. Cant ignore possible signals from the GFS/NAM models that a few storms could produce some gusty outflow winds which may produce some blowing dust. Southerly winds increase through the day with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Overnight, southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph are anticipated. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Tuesday-Tuesday night...as the core of the upper level low lifts northeast into Montana by 12z Wednesday (becoming negatively tilted), another closed low drops into the base of the trough over the western part of the country. A strong surface pressure gradient will result in southerly winds gusting in the 35 to 45 mph range during the day, decreasing slowly overnight while veering to the southwest and west. Presently, locally developed blowing dust/dust storm research does not show impactful blowing dust across the area impacting multiple counties. However, given that some fields are being worked, its possible there could be some very localized blowing dust areas. A more significant weather system moves into the western half of the area during the afternoon, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances increase into the 40%-70% chance range by midnight then decrease from west to east with 20%- 70% chances generally east of Highway 25. The western half of the area is outlooked with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. High temperatures remain above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 60s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...the forecast area remains under southwest flow aloft, in between low pressure systems over Montana and southwest California and ridging to our east. Drier air moves into the area from the west, shutting down any chances for rainfall. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s to near 90 with low temperatures in the lower 50s to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 136 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF both show with the passage of the system for Tuesday night, upper ridge re-amplifies over the Plains region setting up SW flow aloft for the two day period. At the surface, there will be a low over eastern Colorado that meanders eastward on Wednesday w/ a front extending over northern tier zones. Guidance on Thursday sets up another low over Colorado on Thursday as well, but this system will not push east until Friday. So with SW flow aloft for Wed/Thu and a southerly flow during the daytime hours, the region will see near to above normal warmth each day. The position of the low each day will dry conditions for portions of the area each afternoon. RH values Wednesday will range in the mid teens to lower 20s from Highway 27 and west. On Thursday, mid and upper teens spread further east towards the Highway 25 corridor. As a result, increased fire wx conditions will ensue. Winds each day remain below criteria(25 mph). For Friday on through Sunday, both models will bring the broad shortwave over the western portion of the country into the Rockies and lifting E/NE by Sunday night. There is some inconsistency as to the timing/placement of the upper system which will affect QPF potential/duration. A 700mb trough/low will traverse the CWA during this time, interacting with a cold front to trigger rw/trw. High pressure to the east will stall the eastward advance of this system. This will allow for decent precip chances Fri(20-30%), Fri night(40- 60%), Sat(30-40%), decreasing to 20-30% Saturday night as the system begins to lift out of the area. Lingering 15% chances in the far northeast early Sunday morning before dry wx ensues late Sunday onward. While the potential for strong storms is possible as the front moves through the area, will wait to see how the system progresses to highlight further. System track favors the highest QPF potential in the E/NE zones where WPC QPF has over an inch possible. For temps, looking for highs on Wednesday to range in the 80s, with a mix of 80s and 90s on Thursday. On Friday as a cold front begins to work into the area, a wide range from the upper 70s to the upper 80s is expected, warmest along/east of Highway 25. For the upcoming weekend into next Monday, a cool down with 70s expected. Overnight lows will transition from the 50s and 60s Wednesday and Thursday nights, to a mix of 40s to lower 50s(east) from Saturday night onward. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will persist through 02z and may get into vicinity of GLD terminal, but flight catagories will likely remain VFR due to very high cloud bases and minimal precipitation. Gusty variable winds would be most likely impact if storms approach. Otherwise, with winds diminishing overnight and low level jet increasing, llws will be an issue at MCK around 06z. Othwerwise minimal aviation impacts expected until after 22z when threat for thunderstorms will increase. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 335 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Sunday...localized Near Critical fire wx conditions are expected over western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado this afternoon. Winds are expected to hit criteria with gusts up to 20-30 mph. RH values however will reach into the upper teens to lower 20s. East of this area to the Highway 27 corridor, RH values will drop into the mid and upper 20s. Monday and Tuesday...gusty southerly winds are expected area- wide during the afternoon hours. Gusts to 30-40 mph are possible with some localized higher amounts possible. RH values each day will range above criteria in the 20s, but with areas fuels already dry, the expected gusts could allow any fires that may occur to be problematic. The chances for rain will aid in any potential late day fires should they occur. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JRM SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JRM FIRE WEATHER...JN