Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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462 FXUS63 KGLD 182001 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 201 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the area on Friday, mainly along/west of Hwy 25 where breezy southwest winds may develop during the mid-late afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will develop over much, or all, of the Tri-State area this weekend as a potent upper level low tracks eastward across the Rockies and Central Plains. Severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Southwest flow aloft will continue through Friday between a trough in the Four Corners region and a ridge over south Texas. It will be dry today and tomorrow with a weak frontal passage tomorrow morning have little weather impacts other than a wind shift. On Friday afternoon, increasing southwest winds and low humidity in northeast Colorado will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Friday night, a weak wave coming around the southern ridge will result in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe storms are not currently expected due to limited instability, though a few instances of gusty winds cannot be completely ruled out with favorable DCAPE. High temperatures through Friday will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper low will eject from the Four Corners across Colorado and the adjacent plains Saturday and Sunday, bringing widespread precipitation chances. Highest probabilities for rain will begin Saturday afternoon and continue through Saturday night and Sunday morning, gradually tapering off Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. There will be some severe threat towards the beginning of the event Saturday afternoon, with weak to some pockets of moderate instability currently forecast and deep layer shear of 30-50 kts ahead of the ejecting low. Favorable area will be along/ahead of the accompanying surface frontal boundary which will be located northeast to southwest across the forecast area. As the upper low kicks out Saturday night the front will surge south with breezy north winds in its wake. Rain will continue, possible heavy at times, Saturday night through Sunday morning. No severe weather is expected beyond Saturday night. NBM statistics have increased with the potential rainfall for this event, with mean 48 hour amounts (Saturday morning through Monday morning) ranging between 1 and 2 inches for the entire area, higher percentile amounts are between 2 and 3 inches, while the highest percentiles are between 4 and 5 inches. While there may be some potential for flooding Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with the convection, the prolonged nature of the event will bring beneficial rainfall to most areas which have been steadily sliding into drought the past several months. Northwest flow will follow behind that system for early next week. Might see isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with any weak disturbance in the flow each day, but instability will be very limited and most locations will remain dry. Temperatures will potentially reach the low to mid 80s Saturday afternoon before the clouds and precipitation begins, followed by clouds and rain Saturday night and Sunday with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs Sunday mainly in the 60s. Next week will see temperatures near to slightly below normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Low clouds will persist for another hour or two at KMCK, then clearing. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the TAF period. Expect a wind shift to the north at both terminals Thursday morning with a cold front. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...024