Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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224 FXUS63 KGLD 181906 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 106 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in far eastern areas, Hill City to Gove, near a cold front where storms are expected to develop by mid afternoon. If storms develop there, large hail and damaging winds would be the primary risks. - Heavy rainfall is expected from late tonight through the overnight hours for areas south of Highway 24 in northwest Kansas. Generally 1-2 inches is expected, with some local amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for that area through Wednesday morning. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely Wednesday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with the best chances north of Interstate 70, including southwest Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 In the near term, the strong winds associated with the low level jet will gradually diminish through the remainder of the overnight. The cold front in northeast Colorado will reach the Kansas border before sunrise and continue southeast this morning and afternoon. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front during the morning to early afternoon. However, the main convection will wait until around 21-22z with the entire length of the front likely to initiate. At the time, the front should be just south of the area. However, any slight variation in frontal location or convective initiation timing could put the line of storms just into the far southeast counties, Hill City to Gove in northwest Kansas, where there is a slight risk for severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado. Those storms will continue to move southeast with the front through early this evening. Behind the front, most of the area will see dry conditions through the afternoon with cooler temperatures and breezy north to northwest winds. Highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s behind the front, to the upper 80s ahead of it. Tonight, surface winds will veer to northeast and east in the post frontal upslope regime. A weak perturbation in the southwest flow aloft combined with outflow from the storms to the south will be enough for numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop from the late evening hours and through the overnight. Heavy rainfall is forecast by the models for the area generally south of Highway 24 in northwest Kansas. HREF neighborhood probabilities for 3-hour QPF in excess of 3" at 09z and again at 12z show a low probability centered over that area. HREF probabilities for greater than 2" is running around 20-40%. In addition, 06z HRRR is showing very heavy QPF in the same area. All signs indicate flash flooding will be a concern so issued a Flash Flood Watch for the general area where heaviest rainfall is expected. Lows tonight will be in the 50s. Showers and thunderstorms continue into Wednesday morning, but the signals for heavy rainfall shift southeast and out of the area. So ended the Flash Flood Watch at 18z. Precipitation chances become more scattered by the afternoon with additional rainfall amounts of less than a quarter of an inch. Instability will be quite limited in most of the area, but some of the models show the old front nosing north into Logan and Gove counties during the afternoon with some weak to moderate instability and deep layer shear of 20-30 kts. Confidence is on the low side, but there may be a marginal risk for a severe storm or two Wednesday afternoon generally south of Highway 40 in northwest Kansas. High temperatures will be in the 60s with cloudy skies. Wednesday night, the front lifts north across the area with a weak shortwave trough moving through in the southwest flow aloft. As a result, showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage once again. Mean QPF amounts Wednesday night are generally between a quarter and a half inch, though higher percentiles suggest 1-2 inches possible, with best chances for the heavier amounts north of Interstate 70 this time around including southwest Nebraska. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. On Thursday will see subtle height rises as the strengthening ridge over the eastern CONUS nudges into the central plains. Precipitation chances should be limited to any lingering showers in the morning, then late afternoon to early evening scattered storms in Colorado rotating around the ridge into western Nebraska. Instability and shear parameters are weak and not expecting severe storms at this time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle to upper 80s lows Thursday night will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Into the weekend, flow aloft veers towards the west-northwest as troughing slides east and high pressure stretches across the southern CONUS. Weak waves moving through the flow will allow for slight chance (generally around 15-20%) afternoon-evening showers/storms each day. For temperatures, the gradual warming trend continues with low-mid 90s over the weekend followed by possible return of triple digit heat by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be generally in the 60s to perhaps a few low 70s east. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through about 08z. Northerly winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will continue this afternoon before veering to the northeast around 13kts this evening through 08z. After 09z, sub VFR cigs are expected as stratus expands across the area. Rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible along with some light reductions in visibility due to mist (BR). Winds will remain from the northeast around 15kts with perhaps some higher gusts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through about 11z. Northerly winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will continue this afternoon before veering to the northeast around 12kts through 11z. After 12z, sub VFR cigs are expected as stratus expands across the area. Rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible along with some light reductions in visibility due to mist (BR). Winds will remain from the northeast around 11kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight through Wednesday morning for KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...99