383
FXUS63 KGLD 270828
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as hot but humid today with scattered severe storms this
  afternoon and evening with all hazards possible.

- Severe storm potential continues Friday with large to very
  large hail and wind threat.

- Daily potential for afternoon/evening storms this weekend into
  next week.

- Heat index values in the low triple digits Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Showers and embedded storms are finally starting to become a bit
more established across the area. As mentioned in last nights
discussion that there was a chance we would have to overcome some
drier air which would cause rainfall to be a bit delayed. Looking at
current RAP soundings that was the case. With the continued decaying
of showers through the evening, that has allowed the area to
saturate just enough for precipitation to form. Overall severe
threat is low through the night, however will need to watch for
some wind and perhaps some heat bursts as mesoanalysis still
showers well over 1000 j/kg of DCAPE present.

Anticipating some stratus to develop in wake of these showers and
storms around sunrise, however guidance has been struggling handling
the coverage and duration of the ongoing rain so overall coverage
with the stratus is low. The stratus continues to appear to hang on
for the majority of the day so have continued the keep
temperatures across the east in the low to mid 80s. Elsewhere
highs in the 90s are currently forecasted, with the humidity in
place a fairly muggy day for High Plains standards will be on
tap.

As for convection potential for Thursday. If the stratus does manage
to hang on for the majority of the day then a mesoscale differential
heating boundary will be the main focus for afternoon convective
initiation ahead of a subtle shortwave. Should storms initiate
along this boundary which at this time appears to be from Graham
County back into Wichita/Greeley county vicinity the
environment would be favorable for supercell development with
all hazards in play. The NAM does also show a 700mb jet streak
situated across SW Kansas into eastern portions of the area
roughly where this differential heating boundary may be which
would help lift across the area. It is worth noting at this time
the NAM is the only guidance showing this feature.

The above mentioned shortwave will also bring some potential for
isolated to scattered storms off of the Palmer Divide. Some
potential for large hail is possible with this activity but warmer
temperatures aloft and meager lapse rates may keep this threat
lower. Perhaps the greater severe threat with this activity will be
wet microbursts as a very moist air mass will be in place. The RAP
and NAM soundings all have a microburst composite of 7-8 which
is on the higher end of "chance potential" according to SPC
Mesoanalysis page.

A potential 3rd area of concern for severe weather for Thursday will
be across northern and northeast portions of the area. Discrete
supercells that develop in the Sandhills and Nebraska panhandle may
merge into a cluster impacting portions of SW Nebraska and
adjacent northeast CWA counties in Kansas. CAMS overall are not
in very good consensus with this solution, however the HREF and
WRF NSSL both suggest this potential which typically handles
coverage fairly well. Damaging winds would be the primary hazard
with this area. As mentioned above a very moist air mass is in
place with PWATS of 1.7 to 2 inches which is around 90th
percentile to max for this area for this time of year according
to SPC sounding archives so will need to monitor for potential
localized flooding concerns with storms.

Friday will see a surface trough push through the area from the
northwest. Highs for the day will again be the upper 80s to mid 90s
across the area. Storms are forecast to develop off of the Front
Range and along the surface trough in the Nebraska Panhandle and
eventually become an area of cluster of storms with some embedded
supercell potential as it moves ESE across the area. Any supercell
that can materialize may pose a very large hail threat despite
relative lower MUCAPE along with lower PWAT values and dew points,
wind shear is very strong which would help keep hail aloft longer.
700 mb temperatures are also cooler than the previous days as
well which would support hail growth. Will also need to watch
for damaging wind threat especially if a cluster does form and
does bow out.

Saturday, will be a similar pattern to Friday but overall
mesoscale features at this time are a little uncertain along
with quality of moisture. NAM suggests that 60-low 70 dew points
return ahead of a potential MCS developing across northeast
Colorado; whereas the GFS is a bit delayed with the moisture
return keeping it across southern Kansas. If the NAM does pan
out then a severe risk would again be possible along with very
heavy rain. GFS would virtually have no precipitation except
for extreme western and southern portions of the area which may
be clipped by the MCS. A lot still needs to be worked out for
Saturday so stay up to date with the latest forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper ridge will be centered over Texas to start the period but
gradually moves eastward and by the end of the period will be
centered over Georgia. Favored track of shortwaves rotating
around its periphery will also gradually shift eastward. That
track will be over eastern Colorado Sunday, the central part of
the forecast area Monday, the eastern part on Tuesday and then
moving east of the area by Wednesday. There will also be
shortwaves in the zonal flow coming out of Colorado as the ridge
retreats. So, either way we will have daily shower and
thunderstorm chances associated with both features. Location and
strength of best severe parameters vary from day to day, but
suffice to say there will likely be at a minimum a marginal risk
each day. Repeated rounds of storms may also present a risk of
flooding at some point. Temperatures will start out near normal
on Sunday in a post frontal regime, but triple digits return for
Monday with the ridge at its strongest, followed by a gradual
decrease in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge
retreats, albeit still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from TAF issuance through
11Z. Tonight, east-southeast winds will remain generally light
with an occasional gust to 20+ kts through 12Z should storms
make it to the terminal. There is a possibility of stratus
toward 12Z to about mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible at the terminal as they move through from the west in
the 07-12Z timeframe. Thursday morning, winds veer to the south
and increase with gusts up to 30 kts. Morning potential sub VFR
ceilings slowly improve through the morning to VFR category.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from TAF issuance through
about 11Z or so. Tonight, east to east-southeast winds up to 11
kts are forecast. Showers and thunderstorms are currently
forecast to reach the terminal from the west in the 11-18Z
timeframe; however, confidence is low for impacts to the
terminal. Sub VFR ceilings are possible as stratus moves in
behind the storms. Thursday morning, winds veer to the south
and increase with gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK