Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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183 FXUS63 KGLD 212255 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 455 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will develop over majority of the Tri-State area this weekend. Both severe weather and flooding chances are very low (<5%). - Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for eastern Colorado by Monday morning, potentially allowing for some patches of frost. There is a concern for fog formation Monday morning, too. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current observations show moisture streaming in from the south with cloud cover over almost all of the area. Temperatures are now holding steady in the 70`s with the cold front through the area and the cloud cover holding temperatures. Winds are beginning to lower a tad as the front moves further away and mixing has been cut off by the cloud cover. These conditions should hold through the afternoon. Going into the evening and overnight hours, precipitation is forecast to begin for southeastern portions of the area as the moisture continues to stream in and shift to the northeast. An area of surface convergence is also forecast to set up in the southeast which will develop the bulk of the storms and precipitation. The rest of the area may not see precip until later in the evening as a dry streak cuts through the area. However, as the upper trough swings through, additional storms are forecast to fire up along the higher terrain and move east into and hopefully through the area. The main issue again will be the dry air intrusion and how saturated the air column is. Current forecasts are not very optimistic with most having the area with rain totals around a tenth or two. However, larger amounts can be expected if the surface convergence boundary stays near the area in the south and if enough moisture can rotate around the whole system in the area before the higher pressure and upper feature push it all to the east (max amounts around an inch or two). Tomorrow, a much cooler day is forecast as cloud cover lingers through much of the day along with some lingering showers. Will need to keep an eye on how much dry air moves in from the north and how much streams in through the mid-levels. If too much dry air is present, the cloud cover would dissipate earlier than forecast and temperatures likely warm to around 60. Winds are forecast to remain around 10 to 15 mph from the north as the higher surface pressure moves into the area. Tomorrow night, any linger cloud cover is forecast to dissipate as drier air continues to advect into the area. Winds are also forecast to become calm or light as the high pressure broadens out over the area. These conditions will allow for much cooler temperatures in the area with 30`s and 40`s possible. Eastern Colorado and the Tri- State border area may even see frost potential. With the clear skies and calm winds, it`ll be up to how much dry air moves in and how much dewpoints lower. Dewpoints in the low to mid 30`s are possible with temperatures a few degrees warmer forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Going into next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF continue to show an amplified 500mb ridge over the western portion of the country work eastward into the Rockies. The weak system that had been forecast the past couple of days to traverse the eastern side of this ridge Monday night into Tuesday has now weakened further. The two models are not consistent now with this system affecting the western portion of the CWA. With its passage now only Monday night, weak instability present to warrant only a mention of 15-20% chance for showers mainly from Highway 27 and points west into eastern Colorado. Dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures will ensue from Tuesday into the end of next week, aided in part by a persistent southerly surface flow beginning from late Tuesday onward. Both sets of guidance do show the potential for a cutoff upper low well east of the CWA to begin to retrograde Friday evening. Moisture pinwheeling around the system right now does work into eastern portions of Graham and Norton counties. Have kept in a 15% chance for a shower in those areas, but nothing major expected. For temps, looking for a slight increasing trend for highs across the area. Monday and Tuesday will see mainly 70s, with a few isolated 60s possible. By Wednesday mid to upper 70s expected with upper 70s to lower 80s for Thursday onward. Overall near to above normal numbers for highs from Wednesday onward, with slightly below normal for Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will range in the 40s area-wide through midweek, and then from Thursday night onward a range from the upper 40s west into the mid 50s east. Lows will range near to above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 455 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are likely through the taf period. Northeast winds gusting up to 25kts are forecast from taf issuance through 18z with winds falling below 12kts from 19z through the rest of the taf period. Light rain showers will be possible over the terminal from about 07z through 18z as a weather system moves over the area from the southwest. There is a possibility of sub VFR cigs in the 13z-16z timeframe. KMCK...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the taf period. Northeast winds gusting up to 25kts are forecast from taf issuance through 11z with winds falling below 11kts after 12z. Light rain showers will be possible over the terminal from about 07z-22z as a weather system moves over the area from the southwest. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...99