Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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542 FXUS63 KGLD 210851 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 251 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued very windy Friday with 20%-30% chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some of which could become severe. - Weekend looks to remain hot with highs in the 90s. Could be a few severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. - Hottest temperatures of the period Monday/Tuesday. Heat index values of 100-105 degrees east of Highway 25. - Not as hot (highs in the 90s) Wednesday/Thursday with better chances (20%-40%) for thunderstorms moving through the area from the west during the late afternoon to overnight hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 647 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Watching cluster of storms draped from roughly the Denver Airport into the the Nebraska panhandle. The storms are cold pooling to the ENE and may clip NW portions of Yuma county. Overall not much change to the forecast. Did bump up winds from 23-02Z Friday evening as the GFS has been consistently showing an 8mb pressure rise and 40-45 knot winds in the 850-800mb range, which if this does come to fruition would not be difficult to mix down with pressure rises of that magnitude. RAP and NAM however show 3-4mb pressure rises in the same period and no where near that magnitude of winds in the same layer. Previous experience does lean more towards the GFS solution especially when it comes to winds so am leaning towards that solution at this time, but is plausible that winds remain in the 30-35 knot range if the RAP and NAM where to verify. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Tonight...a small area of moisture in the 700-500mb layer is forecast to move off the Palmer Divide area and into the northwest corner of the forecast area (from near Flagler to Wray north) early this evening, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms. The primary hazards will be outflow wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. Otherwise, it should generally be clear with low temperatures in the lower 60s to around 70. Breezy to windy southerly winds will continue generally west of Highway 25. Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an upper trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast states. Unfortunately, moisture from Mexico is skirted to the south of the area (oriented from southwest Kansas to northeast Kansas). There is a bit more moisture in the 700-500mb layer compared to 24 hours ago that moves into the northwest half of the area from the Raton ridge area, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms north of a line from Kit Carson to Colby and Norton from around noon MDT to midnight MDT. A few thunderstorms are possible with hail and strong wind gusts the primary hazards. It will be windy once again with southerly winds gusting in the 35 to 45 mph range during the day, steadily decreasing overnight while veering to the southwest to northwest. Saturday-Saturday night...500mb flow shifts from southwest flow aloft to zonal with troughing to our north and an elongated ridge to our south. Presently, dry weather is forecast. There could be some isolated flirting with the northwest corner of Yuma and Cheyenne counties (Colorado) in the 23z-02z timeframe as some mid level moisture moves off the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide into those areas. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to middle 90s with low temperatures in the 60s. Sunday-Sunday night...broad upper level ridging strengthens over the area. High temperatures continue to rise with readings in the middle to upper 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s. It appears from the GFS/NAM models show a plume of moisture in the 700- 500mb layer moves into parts of the forecast area from south central Colorado, supporting at least a 20% chances for afternoon thunderstorms for quite a bit of the area. As a result, I`ve expanded the areal coverage of possibility from what the NBM loaded. Any thunderstorm activity quickly dissipates in the early evening hours. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 95 to 100 degree range with low temperatures in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 250 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Mon-Tue: Long range guidance indicates that the Tri-State area will be situated on the northern periphery of a broad, west- east elongated ridge (centered over the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains and Lower MS River Valley).. at the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. Above average temperatures are likely. In such a regime, precipitation chances will largely be tied to the development (and downstream propagation) of diurnal convection emanating from the Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide.. augmented (perhaps) by small amplitude waves on the southern fringe of the westerlies. Wed-Fri: Long range guidance indicates that the aforementioned upper ridge will consolidate/amplify over the Desert Southwest and extend northward to the 4-Corners and central Rockies (Wed- Thu).. then flatten and regress southward to the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains (Fri).. as an upper level trough progresses eastward ashore the Pacific Coast and cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the Intermountain West. Above average temperatures are apt to persist. In such a regime, precipitation chances /convective development/ will highly depend upon the evolution of the ridge. -- At present -- guidance suggests that the magnitude, position and orientation of the ridge will be such that (1) synoptic subsidence may largely suppress diurnal convective development along the Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and (2) that low-level forcing/moisture may be insufficient for in-situ convective development on adjacent portions of the High Plains (i.e. northwest KS). In this pattern, at this range.. convective forecast confidence is below average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1007 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions are currently forecasted for the majority of the TAF period. Am watching for the potential for some storms Friday afternoon/evening for each terminal so have included in a Prob30 to account for this. Not much has changed since the 00Z issuance as breezy to gusty southerly winds and LLWS will be the primary story for each terminal.KMCK winds will remain around 10 knots through the night due to the proximity from a surface low across east Colorado. Ongoing showers and storms and an outflow boundary from convection across northeast Colorado will need to be watched as the convection has overperformed due to longevity. If the outflow boundary can reach each terminal then a brief wind shift to NW winds may occur but will include a tempo as it may affect the terminals an hour or two after TAF issuance. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Trigg