Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
502 FXUS63 KGRB 262306 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 606 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected late tonight through 9am Friday. The fog is most likely in the areas just inland from the lake and bay, and across parts of north central WIsconsin. - Warm temperatures to prevail through the end of the work week, with highs running between 10 to 15 degrees above average. - Only slight chances for rain this weekend as residual moisture from Helene is primarily shunted to our south and east. The next chance of precipitation is expected to arrive Monday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Friday Scattered clouds will dissipate early this evening, allowing for areas of dense fog to form again late tonight and continue through around 9am Friday. The areas just inland from the lake and bay are mostly likely to see the fog. There could also be some fog in the usual places in northcentral Wisconsin. Low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees above normal, and highs Friday will be a summer like ten degrees above normal. Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday The forecast remains predominantly dry through the forecast period, with only a couple opportunities for some light precipitation. Temperatures for the extended period will continue to run above normal. Precipitation... Any precipitation for the weekend seems less likely as of this issuance, with most forecast models keeping the remnants of Hurricane Helene well south and east of the area. As such, removed the minor pops we had in the forecast for the Sunday evening to early Monday timeframe. If this trend reverses, it would likely only bring some small pops into east-central Wisconsin. The second chance for some active weather will arrive along a fast moving upper trough that will cross the Great Lakes regions sometime late Monday through Tuesday. As of this forecast, severe remains unlikely, especially if the timing brings the trough through the area Tuesday morning. That said, dynamic forcing coupled with some steeper mid-level lapse rates could still produce at least a few rumbles of thunder across northern Wisconsin. Temperatures... Well above normal temperatures will persist in the forecast through the weekend, with highs into the middle to upper 70s and a few lower 80s. After the passage of the upper trough early next week, some cooler air will work its way into the region, bringing high temperatures back down into the middle to upper 60s. The arrival of the cooler air will bring the chance for some frost to the region Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this evening with mostly clear skies, light surface winds and good visibility. Some ground fog is likely late tonight through 13z Friday, mainly just inland from the bay and Lake Michigan, and across parts of north central Wisconsin. It will be another sunny day Friday once the ground fog dissipates, with excellent visibility and VFR conditions. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....RDM/Uhlmann AVIATION.......Kurimski