960
FXUS62 KGSP 171541
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1141 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime weather is on tap for today before strong high
pressure builds in on Tuesday.  High pressure atop the region will
then suppress any storms from developing until moisture returns on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Monday...No major changes were needed this update
as the forecast remains on track. Thicker cloud cover continues
across the eastern half of the forecast area with lower cloud cover
noted across the central and southern NC mountains. Daytime cumulus
have developed east of the mountains thanks to great insolation.

Extensive upper ridging will remain centered just to our NE and
continue to dominate the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS thru the near-term
period. At the sfc, the center of robust high pressure will
gradually drift SE and away from the New England Coast today and
tonight but still dominate the synoptic pattern down the entire
Eastern Seaboard. This will keep low-lvl SELY flow over our area
today but also begin to advect some lower theta-E air into our
eastern zones. With the upper ridge in place, deep-layer flow will
also become increasingly weak with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly weak as well. This should favor diurnal convection over the
mtns, where it will likely remain confined thru the day/evening.
This is reflected in the PoPs, which are low-end likely across most
of the mtns to only a slight chance over our SE zones. Sfc-based
instability may be sufficient to support a brief pulse severe storm
or two, but locally heavy/excessive rainfall will probably be a
bigger threat owing to the expected slow cell motion. High temps
should top out a degree or two above climatology for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Monday: The effects of the building stout
Mid-Atlantic/NE upper anticyclone is expected to suppress any deep
convective development atop the region on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, save for isolated diurnally fired ridgetop shower
chances.  Despite 595/6dm 50H height values atop the Carolinas, llvl
easterly flow will temper warming, and maximum temperatures remain
progged to be just around climo each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday: The cwfa is progged to be within the
southern periphery of the strong anticyclone centered along the mid-
Atlantic coast to start off the period. Essentially a
persistence forecast for Thursday, a continued suppressed
atmosphere with high temperatures right around the mid-June
climo. Upper ridging will be breaking down on Friday, and as the
llvl flow veers to southerly, expect an uptick in sfc dwpts and
temperatures. Piedmont lower 90s will be possible for maximums,
and as the atmosphere becomes weakly unstable, a few diurnally
fired tstms will be possible. Temperatures will continue to warm
throughout the upcoming weekend thanks to the mean lvll flow
around developing Bermuda high pressure. Piedmont temperatures
could be flirting with middle 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Lower clouds will continue to scatter out at
KAVL,KCLT, and KHKY by the late morning hours. Winds will remain
light to calm thru the morning and pick up modestly from the SE
again this afternoon and remain SELY thru the evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and
evening, with KAVL will having the best potential to see convection.

Outlook: An amplifying upper ridge is likely to result in mostly
dry/VFR conditions through Friday. Mountain valley fog and/or low
stratus may develop each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR/JPT