Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
478 FXUS62 KGSP 241743 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 143 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will peak on Wednesday ahead of a cold front which will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Hot and humid conditions will persist through the weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Another cold front approaches the area late next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A llvl convg zone continues to cross the FA as noted by enhanced Cu seen on the Vis Sat loops. Dont expect much if any chance of shower develop as the subs inversion has become well defined and has lowered to 5 Kft. Soundings show no chance of parcels making it past this inversion, but if enuf sfc lift remains by max heating there could a couple pop-up showers, which would be rather brief in duration. A small-scale sfc high currently located over WV will migrate southeast and off the Carolina coastline thru the period and keep winds unfavorable for sfc-layered moisture transport, thus a morning fog threat will be nil especially with the p/grad remaining a little tight allowing for weak sfc mixing. On Tue, expect the upper ridge to remain dominant and large scale subsidence negating a precip/thunder threat. There will be elCAPE on the order of 1200 Jkg available, but highly unlikely any of this will be realized with no sigfnt triggers noted across the region. Lows tonight will remain a couple degrees abv normal, while highs once again rise above normal by 5-7 degrees within good insolation. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: 1) Lower Humidity and Dry Weather Continues Tuesday 2) Humidity Increases East of the Mountains Wednesday Ahead of an Approaching Cold Front 3) This Front will also Increase Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday night As of 200 AM Monday...Dry sfc high pressure will remain over the region Tuesday into early Wednesday before a cold front tracks across the western Carolinas Wednesday night. Lower humidity will stick around on Tuesday before increasing on Wednesday as winds turn SW`ly ahead of the approaching front. Highs on Tuesday should climb into the low 90s in the mountain valleys and low to mid 90s east of the mountains. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer, climbing back into the lower 90s in the mountain valleys and the mid to upper 90s east of the mountains Wednesday afternoon. Thus, temperatures will remain well above climo through the short term. Heat indices should reach into the lower 100s in the Charlotte metro and the Upper Savannah River Valley Wednesday afternoon but should remain below Heat Advisory Criteria (Heat Advisory criteria begins at a heat index of 105 degrees). Dry conditions will linger through at least Wednesday morning before shower and thunderstorm chances increase from west to east ahead of the FROPA Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Convection will linger through the overnight hours on Wednesday as the cold front tracks overhead. Capped PoPs to chance (45% or less) area-wide Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as global models still diverge on the exact timing/coverage of convection. Guidance generally shows 20 kts or less of deep shear and less than 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE ahead of and along the cold front Wednesday, so the severe potential looks to be low at this time. However, if storms are able to develop ahead of the FROPA during peak heating on Wednesday, a few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out (with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts). The severe wx threat will be highly dependent on the exact timing of the FROPA so confidence on the severe threat remains low for now. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages: 1) Humidity Lingers East of the Mountains through the Long Term 2) A Cold Front Will Sink South of the Area Thursday into Friday but Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Linger Behind the Front 3) Another Cold Front Will Track Across the Area on Sunday Keeping Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Around As of 230 AM Monday...Hot and humid conditions, as well as above normal temps, stick around east of the mountains through the long term period. A cold front will gradually sink south across the eastern third of the forecast area early Thursday before pushing into the Coastal Carolinas early Friday. With dry sfc high pressure expected to remain just north of the Carolinas during this timeframe, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger across the area through the end of the workweek. Capped PoPs to chance (30% or less) area-wide for now. Heat indices should once again climb into the lower 100s each afternoon across the Charlotte metro and the Upper Savannah River Valley, but look remain below Heat Advisory Criteria for now. Another large upper anticyclone will build over the southern US on Saturday before gradually retrograding westward throughout Sunday. At the sfc, a cold front will track across the Midwest on Saturday before pushing across the western Carolinas on Sunday. This will keep shower and thunderstorm chances around through the weekend. Went with low-end chance PoPs (35% or less) on Saturday with higher chance PoPs (45% or less) on Sunday for now. Humidity looks to increase slightly this weekend which may allow for heat indices to flirt near Heat Advisory Criteria each afternoon in the Upper Savannah River Valley (Heat Advisory criteria begins at a heat index of 105 degrees). && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR flight conds will continue across all sites thru the period. A sfc high center will migrate from West Virgina to the Carolina coast which will veer winds outside the mtn valleys from nw/ly to ne/ly or e/ly. Winds at KAVL will remain nw/ly this evening and become channeled se/ly aft daybreak Tue. Winds remain a little elevated overnight as a modest p/grad is maintained, so dense fog will not be an issue except perhaps across the sheltered mtn valleys of southwest NC. Outlook: Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may return as soon as Wed aftn/evening, with seasonable summertime weather returning then and continuing into the weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...SBK SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SBK