520
FXUS62 KGSP 151806
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. The high will linger over the region through much of next
week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated diurnal ridgetop
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Monday.
Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cumulus field across the mtns has become more vertically enhanced.
However, llvl instability is running into warm mlvls and meager mlvl
lapse rates with no good triggering available. Latest RAP soundings
suggest a few general tstms and showers developing arnd 19z as LFC
parcels possibly break cap. Convective activity will remain mostly
relegated to the NC mtns this evening.

The models have picked up on a weak north moving sfc bndry late this
evening into the overnight. The latest trends have been for more
activity along this bndry, but don`t think things will be as strong
as what the NamNest is suggesting. So, have introduced slight chance
PoPs mainly across the wrn zones thru 09z for mostly showers and
isol thunder. Sun Looks to become more convectively active across
the mtns as se/ly BL flow develops and upslope enhancement helps
produce pulse type storms. Dont anticipate severe level storms as
the environ remain neg forced, but a couple cells could reach SPS
strength as sbCAPE increases to arnd 1200 J/kg. Lows tonight will
remain abv normal with increasing in cloud cover late, while highs
Sun return to near normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: An upper level anticyclone will be in
place across the region through the short range period. On Sunday
night and Monday, there will enough moisture and upslope flow to
create showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, as the
anticyclone strengthens, a strong drying trend is expected with
Tuesday being an entirely dry day. Highs each day will be 2-3
degrees above climo, generally upper 80s in the Piedmont and mid 80s
in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The strong upper anticyclone will settle
over the mid-Atlantic region for the middle to end of next week.
This will lead to dry conditions and temperatures just a few degrees
above climo. There may be an increase in moisture toward the week of
the week leading to a return to a normal diurnal chance of showers
and storms. Overall, it will be a pretty quiet period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A northward moving bndry will likely increase
cloud cover overnight and produce MVFR CIGS at KAVL and possibly
across the Upstate terminals. These restrictions will be relatively
short lived and by 12z all sites shud be VFR. KHKY could also see
MVFR CIGs late period as the bndry remains across that area. Precip
chances will be sct/isol and confidence is low on any terminal
receiving rain or thunder. High pressure centers off the Atl coast
overnight, which will allow for e/ly to se/ly winds all sites thru
the daytime period.

Outlook: More moist, SLY flow returns by early next week and will
likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each
day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...SBK