023
FXPQ50 PGUM 240803
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
603 PM ChST Mon Jun 24 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery showing generally partly cloudy skies with
isolated trade showers. Latest altimetry passes and Ritidian buoy are
indicating seas of 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
The trade disturbance has pushed west and the clouds and showers have
diminished. Expected generally partly cloudy skies and isolated
trade showers for the rest of the week. Another trade trough,
currently situated around 160E, looks to pass through the Marianas
Wednesday and Wednesday night. May see an uptick in clouds and
showers, but model moisture profiles and QPF have trended downward,
so keep coverage isolated. A TUTT cell looks to approach the
Marianas by late week. Model guidance is not showing a substantial
increase in shower potential with its passage, and only a few
lightning strikes have been observed near it today. Have removed the
slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, but may need to
monitor in the coming days as the TUTT cell approaches and passes
north then west of the Marianas.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Expect moderate to fresh trade winds with a potential for strong
gusts through Wednesday night. Seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue to
build to between 5 and 7 feet for Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds and
seas look to diminish for late week as the trade swell and surge in
trade winds diminish, with seas dropping about 1 to 2 feet and winds
becoming gentle to moderate by the weekend.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north and east
facing reefs through midweek as an elevated trade swell and a
background northerly swell impact the region. A low risk of rip
currents continues for south and west facing reefs. Surf looks to
lower slightly for late week into the weekend as the trade swell and
background northerly swell diminish. Rip risk could become low along
north facing reefs, but looks to stay moderate along east facing
reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A weak Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon south and
east of Majuro. Model analysis during the day continues to show the
ITCZ building westward south of Kosrae to southeast of Pohnpei by
Wednesday. Convergence along and north of the ITCZ will lead to bouts
of scattered showers over Majuro and Kosrae, with some thunderstorms
expected within coastal waters Thursday at Pohnpei. Thunderstorm
activity from the middle of week through early this weekend will be
confined outside the coastal waters of each island. Model solutions
then show the ITCZ fragmenting into individual troughs and
dissipating by early this weekend, before another ITCZ forms early
next week.

Gentle to moderate trades are expected at Majuro, Kosrae and Pohnpei
through early weekend. Combined seas between 4 and 6 feet are
expected to push westward as a slightly elevated east trade swell
moves across the region, adding a foot to seas at Kosrae on Tuesday
and Pohnpei by Wednesday. Seas are expected to fall around a foot by
this weekend. Altimetry passes this afternoon show combined seas
between 6 and 8 feet east of the Marshall Islands.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) south of Palau and Yap is
generating pockets of moderate to deep convection along the trough
axis. Trade convergence and a broad surface trough over eastern Yap
State is generating pockets of moderate to deep convection southwest
of Chuuk. Models show the surface trough over eastern Yap State
moving westward and interacting with the NET, generating periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms at Palau with bouts of showers and
thunderstorms expected at Yap through Tuesday. For the middle of the
week through the weekend, trade-wind troughs impinging on the NET
will generate bouts of showers and isolated thunderstorms at Chuuk,
Yap and Palau.

Gentle to moderate trades and benign seas conditions are
expected through the weekend at Chuuk, Yap and Palau. Seas may
come up one to two feet around the middle to latter part of the week
as a slightly elevated easterly trade swell moves across the region.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Kelly