206
FXUS61 KGYX 161938
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
338 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary is touching off showers and
thunderstorms across the north this afternoon and evening. High
pressure than builds in allowing for patchy fog tonight. Other
than a weak system bringing some isolated showers on Saturday,
high pressure will continue to dominate through early next week
with much warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Convection firing up on boundary across across central ME. Most
of it is from Somerset county east, although some more isolated
cell popping up all the way west in the Whites. This boundary is
a weak temp boundary, but it is getting added convergence from
some marine layer influence to the S, and some differentiation
heating. There have been a handful of lightning pulse to our E
in this line, but theres not a lot of sustained forcing, with a
lack of wind across much of the vertical in the atmosphere.
Expect them to diminish around and after sunset. Otherwise,
thinking theres a an overall clearing trend tonight as high
pressure trickles in from the NE beneath strengthening ridging
aloft. The lack of flow will keep low moisture on the higher
side, with Tds mostly in the 50-55 range, and so will see patch
fog, more likely in places where it rained today. Mins will drop
to around 50 across much of the CWA, as partial clearing will
allow some rad cooling, but the higher Tds will limit the fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday looks fairly decent with more sun in the morning an
clouds thickening during the afternoon. The ridge does shift E,
with some weak height falls later in the day, so may see an
isolated shower pop up in the mtns, but should be dry most
places, with highs a little warmer than Thursday away from the
coast, thanks to less cloud cover, and highs in the mid to
upper 60s on the coast. The onshore flow should pick up a little
and move further inland Fri night ahead of the next system, so
thicken clouds overnight will not be lowering temps as much as
tonight, but, with the remain moving in , should mins drop to
around 50 in most spots again.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview: The large scale pattern continues to be unsettled
through the weekend although it looks like overall models have
trended drier. Surface high pressure and and an upper level
ridge will keep things dry and warm for the first half of next
week before an upper level trough and surface front approach the
region which could bring our next widespread chance for rain.

Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected

Details: Surface low pressure moving up the East Coast will
stay well offshore thanks to high pressure building to our
northeast. However, an upper trough looks to dive through the
region Saturday which may touch off some light showers mainly
over New Hampshire and southeastern Maine as a vorticity maximum
rounds the base of the trough. Otherwise, clouds should be
gradually clearing through the day as the aforementioned surface
high pressure begins to build into our area. With good mixing
expected we look to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s
everywhere except the coast where onshore flow from the low out
at sea will likely cap temperatures in the upper 50s and low
60s. Partly cloudy skies and calm winds overnight will allow
temperatures to cool into the mid to upper 40s. Skies will
continue to clear on Sunday as a ridge builds in and the
resulting northwesterly upper flow will begin to dry out the
upper levels. Similar to Saturday, BUFKIT soundings are showing
us mixing right up to 850 mb which would result in another day
in the upper 60s and low 70s, with the coast continuing to be
stunted by the seabreeze and ending up in the upper 50s and low
60s. Low temperatures will be a hair lower on Sunday with the
clearer skies, but this still only amounts to the mid to upper
40s as 850 mb temperatures continue to warm.

We return to summer for the first half of next week as high
pressure and upper ridging remain directly overhead. Would
expect temperatures Monday through Wedensday to have no problems
getting into the upper 70s and lower 80s each day. Daily
seabreeze development would keep things at the coast a bit
cooler. Tuesday will be the warmest day as models suggest 850 mb
temperatures as Winds/seas stay below SCA through Friday night,
but seas may start to get near 5 ft early Fri morning. high as
17C. For those that might not be a fan of the heat, the
advantage of the clear skies means relief will come during the
night when temperatures can cool back into the upper 40s and
50s. There is some uncertainty as far as what to expect for
Thursday as many signs point to a front approaching the area.
The timing of this will be crucial in determining if we may see
some stronger storms develop as early as Wednesday afternoon or
on Thursday. This is only worth a mention here as it is at the
tail end of the period, but we will continue to watch trends and
evaluate over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Latest models are now showing much less of an
influx of of marine stratus and fog, although KPSM seems the
most likely place to drop to IFR early in the evening, and then
LIFR a few hours later. Cannot rule out some IFR late at
KPWM/KRKD. Inland terminals could see some fog , especially at
those where rain occurred today. Everyone goes back to VFR early
Fri morning, but theres a good chance for marine layer stratus
and fog again Fri night.


Long Term...Some MVFR ceilings are possible during the day
Saturday as a weak system crosses the area bringing some light
rain showers with it. Otherwise the rest of the period will be
VFR with light winds as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA through Friday night, but
seas may start to get near 5 ft early Fri morning.

Long Term...An SCA may be needed over the weekend as low
pressure passes over the waters and brings seas to around 5 ft.
Otherwise, high pressure builds in for next week which will
bring conditions back below SCA thresholds and keep them there
through this forecast period.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Baron