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000
FXUS61 KGYX 081911
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
311 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent upper-level low will keep conditions cool with chances of
showers through Saturday along with a few thunderstorms on Friday
and Saturday. The low will finally begin to get nudged out by a
ridge Sunday and Monday, allowing for mostly dry conditions and
warmer temperatures. Another low pressure and cold front will
increase rain chances again Monday night through Wednesday of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cloudy and showery weather will continue into this evening
underneath a persistent upper low. Shower activity will become
less widespread late this evening with the loss of heating.
Light winds and low level moisture will bring the chance for
patchy fog across the area tonight with the greatest chances for
visibility restrictions in fog along the coastal plain. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 40s north to upper 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The persistent upper low remains over New England through Friday
night, while a piece of energy dropping in from the north acts to
shift its center slightly to the west. This will allow for mid level
flow to become more southwesterly over New England and slightly
higher dewpoint air being advected into the region. This slight
uptick in dewpoints will allow for slightly greater instability
to develop than today, albeit only around a few hundred J/kg of
CAPE. This instability along with slightly higher PWATs will
lead to more widespread shower coverage with these showers
capable higher rainfall rates (compared to mostly sprinkles
today) along with low chances for some thunderstorms. The lack
of shear and low CAPE environment will keep any thunderstorms
below severe thresholds while any thunderstorm will bring the
threat of heavy rainfall. Additionally, low freezing levels
around 7KFT could allow for stronger cores to produce pea sized
small hail, although confidence in this is not high enough to
put small hail in the forecast. High temperatures will be
similar to today across southern areas in the 60s while in the
mountains and north highs will be warmer than today into the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Similar to this evening, shower and any thunderstorm activity
will wane with the loss of heating Friday evening. Light winds
and low level moisture will again bring the chance for patchy
fog across the area. Lows Friday night will range from the mid
40s north to near 50 degrees south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level area of low pressure will gradually exit New
England over the weekend. However, expect one more day of
at least some shower activity on Saturday along with cool
temperatures and considerable amounts of clouds. Highest pops
will once again be situated over northern areas. Sufficient
instability will be present for a few thunderstorms to develop
as well, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. It will
be warmer with mainly 60s across the region with a few lower 70s
possible over southern New Hampshire.

Weak ridging crossing the region will lead to a dry Sunday. Warm
air advection and some sunshine will allow for warmer conditions
as well. Afternoon high temperatures will reach the 60s in most
areas however 60s can be expected along the normally cooler
Midcoast region.

12Z operational guidance and latest ensemble solutions remain in
relatively good agreement with low pressure approaching the
region from the west on Monday. Clouds will thicken during the
day with pockets of light rain by evening, mainly over western
sections. Low pressure is then expected to enter southern Canada
Monday night into Tuesday, pushing a frontal system into New
England. Along and ahead of this front, widespread shower
activity can be expected a moisture is funneled poleward.
Sufficient instability will be present as well allow for some
thunderstorms to develop as well. Strong dynamics, some warm air
advection and increased precipitable water values may allow for
a few of the storms to contain locally heavy rainfall.

The upper level low associated with this system will allow for
scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
be a seasonable levels for this time of the year, mainly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Cigs will continue to fluctuate between VFR and
MVFR through sunset with further vsby restrictions possible as
brief heavier showers continue to develop under an upper low.
Shower activity wanes this evening while lowering cigs and BR
tonight will likely bring IFR to LIFR conditions late tonight
until sunrise. MHT and CON stand the best chance only to see
MVFR conditions tonight. Similar to today showers and possibly
TSRA will develop during the day with fluctuating cigs and vsby
restrictions in heavier rain. Friday night lowering cigs and the
threat for BR/FG will again bring the potential for IFR to LIFR
conditions.

Long Term...Areas of MVFR conditions can be expected on Saturday in
scattered showers before sunshine and VFR conditions return on
Sunday into early Monday. Rain arrives Monday night through Tuesday
with widespread IFR and locally LIFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Weak low pressure will remain over New England
through Friday night. Winds and seas will stay below SCA
thresholds during this time.

Long Term...Mainly relatively light wind conditions through the
period. Winds and seas however will be on the increase Monday night
into Tuesday as an area of low pressure approaches from the west.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cannon