191
FXUS61 KGYX 172314
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
714 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain entrenched east of the region through
midweek before some moisture over the southeastern states builds
north increasing the chance for showers south of the mountains
Wednesday night and Thursday with cooler temperatures. Canadian
high pressure builds in from the north to end the week and through
the weekend with seasonable temperatures and dry weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM Update...Very little change to the going forecast. Light
winds, radiating temperatures, and thin strands of cirrus
floating overhead will be the story this evening.

Previously...

High pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control
tonight while high clouds from a system over the Mid Atlantic
continue to stream overhead. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s
with favorable radiational cooling spots dropping into the 40s.
Fog will likely develop along the CT Valley with the 12Z HREF
suggesting some marine stratus and fog will push into the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging aloft starts to break down Wednesday while high pressure
over the western Atlantic continues to keep the area dry.
Moisture from the system over the Mid Atlantic makes subtle
progress northward resulting in skies trending partly to mostly
cloudy across the far south while northern areas likely see more
sun than clouds. It will again be warm with highs into the 80s
while stronger onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the 70s.

High pressure shifts east into the Atlantic Wednesday night
while an area of low pressure attempts to get organized south of
Long Island, NY. This system will bring more in the way of
clouds to the region with skies becoming mostly cloudy south of
the mountains. There also looks to be better inland penetration
of marine fog Wednesday night. Lows will generally be in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z operational models and ensemble solutions continue to
indicate a disorganized area of low pressure will be centered
off the Northeast coast at the beginning of the extended period.
Moisture attempts to advect towards the Maine and New Hampshire
coastline with the best chances for precipitation Thursday into
Thursday night. Whether or not these showers will reach
southern portions of the forecast area will be highly dependent
on the amount of dry air in place over northern New England in
which the system would need to displace. For the time being,
will only have low probabilities for precipitation as our very
dry period continues across the region.

An upper level trough may bring a sprinkle or an isolated shower
to the interior of Friday. However, yet again any precipitation
would be very light. Otherwise, high pressure over eastern
Canada will keep us dry over the weekend and into early next
week.

Above normal temperatures on Thursday will be replaced by
seasonable readings for the remainder of the extended forecast.

Coastal Flooding...The onshore winds forecast for the coast late
in the week will coincide with very high astronomical tides.
This may lead to minor coastal flooding near the times of high
tide.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR through the first part of tonight. Some
marine fog/stratus may impact KRKD, KAUG, and KPWM later tonight
into day break with valley fog likely bringing LIFR to KLEB and
KHIE. Conditions improve to VFR for all TAF sites Wednesday.
Marine fog/stratus will again have the potential to impact
KRKD, KAUG, and KPWM Wednesday night with patchy fog possible at
KHIE and KLEB.

Long Term...VFR likely prevails during the day time Thursday
through Sunday. Night time valley fog will bring the potential
for IFR/LIFR most nights at KLEB and KHIE. Onshore flow and
increasing clouds from a system passing south of New England
will also bring the potential for cigs around MVFR thresholds
Thursday and Thursday night and possibly into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight
through Wednesday night as high pressure over the western
Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Maine. Marine fog has the
potential to develop over the Gulf of Maine tonight and persist
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Thursday.
a northeast flow will develop Thursday as low pressure
approaches and stays south of New England. Low pressure passing
south of the Gulf of Maine will bring seas building to 5 ft by
Friday with continued NE flow with gusts around 25 kts. Seas
remain elevated around 5 feet into the weekend with NE winds
subsiding from their peak on Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cannon