131
FXHW60 PHFO 091928
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
928 AM HST Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will continue this week with high pressure
slowly tracking eastward. Scant trade showers will favor windward
shores and slopes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will maintain north to northeast of the state
through the week keeping breezy trade winds in the forecast.
Ridging aloft will produce dry and stable conditions to go along
with the breezes. 12Z soundings showed strong inversions near
4000 feet, which will limit shower development. Visible satellite
this morning shows an area of stable stratocumulus clouds coming out
of the east, which may produce some windward clouds along the lower
windward slopes over the next couple days. Radar currently shows
almost no shower activity within range.

The high is expected to slowly track eastward through the week
with a low pressure system shifting the high a little bit
southward by next weekend. Weather pattern across Hawaii will
change very little with minor fluctuations in wind speeds, and
mostly dry and stable conditions continuing. A few windward
clouds and showers will occur at times, but no significant rain
amounts are expected through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will increase into the
fresh to strong range today and continue through much of the week
as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. This may lead to
the Small Craft Advisory expanding to the Kaiwi Channel and Maui
County Windward waters by Monday. Guidance suggests a potential
weakness forming in the ridge northwest of the state next weekend,
which could lead to moderate to fresh east-southeast trades.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain up through the week
due to an active pattern within our swell window near New Zealand.
Overlapping, long-period, south to south-southwest swells are
expected, with the next one beginning to fill in early this
morning (peak energy centered within the 18-22 second bands at
the buoys). Guidance shows this swell peaking late tonight
through Monday. A downward trend is anticipated Tuesday through
midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south-southwest swell
and a small, medium-period southeast swell. A fresh long-period
south swell is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday, then
peak late Friday into Saturday.

Surf along north-facing shores will remain up slightly through
the first half of the week as small north to north-northwest
pulses move through. The next north pulse should fill in late
Monday, with a small north-northwest swell arriving Tuesday into
midweek. A return to summertime/flat conditions is likely later
this week through next weekend.

Surf along east-facing shores should trend up later this week as
the trades become established locally and upstream across the
eastern Pacific.


&&

.MARINE...
Breezy trades will continue to gradually increase through the
rest of today. With high pressure and dry air in place over the
region, shower activity will be limited. A strong inversion will
keep any ceilings fairly low, allowing for periods of MVFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. No AIRMETs are currently
in effect, nor expected through this afternoon, unless widespread
low ceilings develop.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for south facing shores
of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, Kahoolawe and Big Island.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...JVC