460
FXUS64 KHGX 130446
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms so far today have been confined to our
coastal and far western counties as the shortwave/trof axis sags
southward. Locally heavy rainfall has been observed with the slower
moving activity (Angleton got another 1.25" on top of yesterday`s
1.82"). Boundary collisions (outflow and sea breeze) and afternoon
heating could allow for activity to spread/build further east this
afternoon (starting to see a shower or two beginning to pop up near
Houston Hobby), and locally heavy rain will still be possible with
any of the stronger and/or slower moving storms. Things should quiet
down this evening with the loss of heating, and most of the area
should stay quiet overnight (cannot rule out possible fog
development). Rain chances are lower tomorrow as ridging/subsidence
builds in from the north and northeast, and most if not all of the
convection is expected to remain near and to the south of the I-10
corridor with the greatest concentration likely focusing across our
coastal counties. Anything that does develop will dissipate in the
evening, and Thursday night will be quiet.

This afternoon`s temperatures range from the 70s/80s in and close to
the rain areas to the 90s where sun has been abundant. Tonight`s and
tomorrow night`s lows will cool into the 70s inland and close to 80
at the coast. Thursday`s highs will be warmer (less clouds and
rains)...back into the 90s almost areawide.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

In terms of Friday, ridging aloft will increase having an effect on
the expected maximum temperatures. We will see a rise of the maximum
temperatures to around 95F. This will cause the heat index to be in
the low and mid 100s. The minimum shouldn`t be greatly effected and
will remain at 70-75F all throughout the week. No storms or showers
are predicted to occur until some tropical moisture moves over our
area Sunday evening. This moisture will bring with it a chance of
thunderstorms along with a potential for locally heavy rainfall. As
of now, the current rainfall forecast is 2-4" south of I-10 and 1-2"
north of I-10. These possible storms could last all the way till
Wednesday if this tropical moisture plume develops. Keep in mind
that this forecast will likely change as the storm gets closer. More
details on these possible thunderstorms is described in the
"Tropical" portion of this discussion. Temperature will also
decrease to being a maximum around 90F once this moisture moves into
our area. There will be relatively little change to wind conditions
throughout the week as they remain to be onshore with a speed around
5-15mph. With these calm winds and high moisture content, be aware
of some possible early morning patchy fog. Cloud cover will be
scattered for the next few days, until the tropical moisture brings
some overcast clouds to our area on Sunday evening.

Thompson/Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Light and variable winds will persist through mid morning before
becoming easterly then southeasterly through the day at around
6-9kt. There will be some patchy fog developing tonight, bringing
visibilities down to 3-6mi at times, with greater potential of
development occuring at CXO, UTS, CLL, and LBX. Any fog that
develops will dissipate after sunrise, though there will be some
SCT low level clouds through the late morning/early afternoon
around 2500ft. VFR conditions prevail through the day with some
isolated shower and thunderstorm possible along the coast (though
with much less coverage than the previous few days).

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Onshore winds with a speed of 5-15 knots should be expected
throughout the week. Wave heights will be around 2 feet for the next
couple of days until we reach Sunday evening. Throughout Sunday and
Monday, wave heights will gradually increase to around 8-10 feet on
Tuesday morning. Caution flags/advisories are possible with the
winds and seas experiencing a notable increase. There is also a
possibility for showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday
evening and finally ending by Wednesday.

Thompson/Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring for the potential for a
broad surface low in the Bay of Campeche to develop into a tropical
cyclone late in the weekend into early next week. As of 1pm CDT
today, the NHC has outlined the formation chance at 30% over the
next 7 days. The movement of this system is expected to be westward
or west-northward which at the moment looks to take it into the
northeastern Mexico coastline. Regardless if this system has a name
attached to it or not, we`re still looking at an influx of deeper
tropical moisture being sent towards the Texas Gulf coast which will
bring an increase in rain chances for at least the first half of
next week. Keep in mind that some areas have not yet fully recovered
from the previous heavy rain events from earlier in the spring. As
of right now, model consensus points toward most of the rain falling
near and along the coast with ~2-4" along and south of I-10. We`re
also anticipating elevated tides and an increased risk in rip
currents next week as well. This is all still multiple days out, so
there`s plenty of time for things to change.

This section of the discussion will only be updated as needed, so be
sure to keep track of the latest on the tropics at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  92  73  94 /  30   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  93  74  94 /  30  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  89  80  90 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste