362
FXUS64 KHGX 271308
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
TX 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Some isolated to scattered showers noted northeast of the CWA early
this morning...generally situated near a weak frontal boundary
stalled out across northeast Tx and Lousiana. With PW`s around 2"
situated to its south & southwest, would anticipate some additional
tstm activity across portions of the region today as we get some
some daytime heating going. Seabreeze/baybreeze might come into play
later today as well. Any stronger cells that develop will be capable
of producing some gusty winds. As far a temps go, they`ll remain
slightly above normal across most of the region but increased cloud
cover should generally keep heat indices in check. Exception might
be w/nw portions around the Brazos Valley who`ll be a bit closer to
the mid level ridging and could see a few hours of 107-109F heat
index values. Re-issued a heat advisory there today to better match
up with neighbors.

Convection should diminish fairly quickly with the loss of heating
this evening. The diffuse frontal boundary to our northeast should
wash out on Friday and mid-upper ridging expands a bit further
eastward into the area. So, would expect some lower POPs and less
cloud cover.  47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A mid/upper level high (colloquially called a "heat dome") is
expected to amplify over the Southeast CONUS/ArkLaTex Region over
the weekend into next week. Global deterministic and ensemble
guidance suggest that the mid level high will be centered near the
Red River Valley on Sunday, with 500mb heights peaking at 597-599
dam. 850mb temperatures are still progged to rise to 19-21C, with
this upward trend reflected in ensemble multi-run max temperature
values at the surface. During the first half of next week, the
aforementioned mid level high appears to drift eastward into the SE
CONUS. Naturally this will reduce it`s influence over SE Texas,
though this effect will be subtle at best as highs drop 2-3 degrees
by Wednesday.

Dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s daily, with PWs largely in
excess of 1.75" through mid next week. Ample moisture and weak
capping in place will bring daily chances for afternoon
thunderstorms, especially south of I-10 with any sea-breeze driven
convection. If any impulses that round the bottom of the midlevel
ridge could further aid in shower/storm development, though guidance
has trended downwards with respect to PVA and rain chances as a
whole. Additionally, NASA`s GMAO shows that Plumes of Saharan Dust
will pass over SE Texas this weekend into the beginning of next
week. This may result in hazy-white sky conditions during this
period.

In general, expect highs in the upper 80s near to upper 90s through
mid next week. Isolated spots could see the highs break the triple
digit mark, especially on Monday. Overnight lows will be in the mid
70s to lower 80s. Heat indices during the afternoon will range from
around 106-113 at their peak, with isolated higher values possible.
The Heat Risk for those participating in leisurely outdoor
activities will be Moderate (level 3/5) to Major (level 4/5) each
day. WBGT values suggest that those participating in strenuous
outdoor activities may feel Extreme (level 5/5) heat stress during
the hottest parts of the day. Additional Heat Advisories could be
warranted throughout this period. Those planning to spend extensive
time outside should practice heat safety. Remember to drink plenty
of fluids, wear lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks
inside away from the sun.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions expected for the most part. Would anticipate some sct
tstms around the area today. Due to the unorganized nature, it`s
tough to pinpoint any specific timing for the TAF sites...maybe late
morning and early afternoon for UTS/CXO and early afternoon to
sunset for the metro area to the coast. Cells will most likely move
from NNE toward the SSW versus the more typical S to N summertime
direction. Anticipate some gusty winds possible in and near the
strongest storms.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated
over the next several days.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  77  97  79 /  30  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  96  79  95  80 /  40  20  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  90  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ176-195>198-210-211.

GM...None.

&&

$$