395
FXUS64 KHGX 250355
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Showers will continue moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon, courtesy of the influx of moisture and a weak cap. The
synoptic pattern remains unchanged with an area of high pressure
continuing to sit overtop the state. This will continue to lead to
increasing daytime temperatures. While we managed to loom just below
the Advisory criteria today with regards to heat...that is not
looking like it will be the case for Tuesday.

With the 500mb temperatures continuing to reach above the 90th
percentile per NAEFS/GFS, not expecting to see this high pressure
weaken in the short-term period. Daytime highs for Tuesday will be
in the 90s inland and in the upper 80s along the coast. With
elevated dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees, heat index
values will be in the 108-112 range for a good portion of SE Texas.
A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for most, if not all inland
areas on Tuesday (interests along the coast should remain below
criteria).

Nighttime temperatures will not provide much relief...while heat
index values will relax, it will still feel very warm and muggy.
Temperatures tonight and Tuesday night will be in the 70s to low
80s.

With heat as the headline for the short-term, please remember to
practice heat safety. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest
time of the day, stay hydrated, LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK, and remember
that if it is too hot for the palm of your hand...it is too hot for
your pets` paws. Stay safe!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The prominent ridge over the Southern CONUS begins to weaken by
00Z Wednesday, shifting to be more focused over the Four Corners
region. This will allow a trough to dig down to our east, bringing
a shortwave by early morning Thursday. While the most widespread
impacts seem to be localized over Louisiana, the positive
vorticity advection may have a small increase in local
precipitation chances from diurnal showers and thunderstorms
throughout Thursday and Friday. The precipitation totals for these
should be small, perhaps some heavier rain in localized
thunderstorms, but overall the totals should not exceed 0.1
inches.

Despite the weakening of this ridge, the temperature remains high
for the next few days. Expect highs in the 90s, closer to the low
90s for regions near the coast, with mid to upper 90s further
inland. Maximum heat indices will remain in the triple digits, with
it being possible later in the week that a Heat Advisory may need to
be issued. Low temperatures will be in the upper 70s across the
region, with low 80s being possible towards the coast. High relative
humidity in our area will contribute to the heat index temperatures,
and the higher minimum temperatures may not provide much relief
overnight. Ensure that you are consuming plenty of water and
avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day if
possible. Check in on your pets and family members as the heat
worsens.

Ellis/Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the early morning hours.
Around 10Z, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop CXO and
northward and prevail through around 16Z before dissipating.
Southeasterly to southerly winds around 10 knots will prevail
throughout the day. Some isolated showers are expected to develop
(mainly west of I-45) during the afternoon hours, but coverage
still looks to be too sparse to add in VCSH to any of the TAFs at
this time.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Seas will remain on a diminishing trend into tomorrow, reaching
around 2 feet. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail
through the duration of the week, generally remaining below
advisory thresholds. Some isolated coastal flooding is possible
along the Bolivar Peninsula. There will be a daily risk of
isolated showers and thunderstorms every day through the weekend.

Cady/Ellis

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  94  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  94  77  96 /   0  10   0  30
Galveston (GLS)  82  88  82  90 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Ellis
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cady